Michigan CFP title odds on move after OSU win; Caleb Williams new Heisman favorite
College Football Playoff odds, Big Ten championship odds, Heisman Trophy odds. Michigan’s blowout upset of Ohio State did a number on all three of those markets Saturday afternoon.
The Wolverines put up 21 fourth-quarter points to turn a slim 24-20 edge into a 45-23 steamrolling of the archrival Buckeyes. And Michigan did so as a consensus 8.5-point road underdog, stunning the massive Ohio State crowd at the Horseshoe.
What’s that mean for all the aforementioned odds markets? Let’s get to it.
Does the Big Ten go through Ann Arbor ?
Should the Big Ten go through Ann Arbor instead of Columbus after Ohio State lost to Michigan?
Michigan moves to No. 2
First off, after spending the past three weeks pinned to No. 3 on the college football national championship odds board – and in the CFP rankings – Michigan is now the +275 second choice to win it all at BetMGM.
That’s much to the chagrin of BetMGM sports trader Seamus Magee.
“Ohio State is a big winner for us in the national championship and Big Ten markets,” Magee said. “We’re going to need an upset in Indianapolis to save us some money.”
Michigan’s opponent in the Dec. 3 Big 10 title tilt is not yet determined. Regardless, Michigan will be a significant favorite to win and advance to the CFP.
Said FOX Bet trading operations associate Matthew Griffe of the Michigan-Ohio State outcome:
“This game was essentially a College Football Playoff eliminator and all but assures Michigan’s spot in the final four, assuming a win in the Big Ten championship next week – likely vs. Purdue, with Iowa‘s loss to Nebraska. Michigan should open as a heavy favorite, regardless of the matchup. Odds are it is vs. Purdue, and the line would open Michigan -13.5.”
FOX Bet also moved Michigan to the +250 second choice in its college football national championship odds market, behind only solid favorite Georgia (-160).
An Alabama reprieve?
Defending national champ Georgia (12-0) remains the favorite to win it all at BetMGM, as well, sitting at -160. But with Michigan so convincingly smacking Ohio State, guess who’s not quite dead yet – and is, in fact, quite alive?
If you guessed Alabama, then step up and claim your prize.
“Alabama will re-enter the championship race, as it looks like there’s an actual path back in for the Crimson Tide,” Magee said.
The Crimson Tide are 9-2 as they battle it out against Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Assuming the Crimson Tide win – they’re 22-point home favorites – BetMGM already has them as the +2000 fifth choice in odds to win the CFP. Any slip-ups by Michigan, TCU or USC, and the Tide could roll right in.
TCU (11-0) and USC (10-1) are currently the +1000 co-third choices on BetMGM’s CFP championship odds board. The Horned Frogs are playing Iowa State, while USC hosts Notre Dame on Saturday night.
In fact, Alabama’s odds are better than LSU’s (+4000), even though the Tigers are in the SEC championship game. That’s because LSU – assuming it wins Saturday night at Texas A&M – would have to beat the Bulldogs in the SEC final to get into the CFP. Oddsmakers don’t see that happening.
Buckeyes busted
Even though Ohio State (11-1) has just one loss, WynnBet senior trader Motoi Pearson sees no CFP path for the Buckeyes.
“If Ohio State was a bit more competitive toward the end [vs. Michigan], the Buckeyes might’ve had an outside shot to get the No. 4 seed,” Pearson said. “But in a blowout, it looks like the Big Ten may just get one in with Michigan.”
WynnBet will update its CFP championship odds Sunday, and in all likelihood – as is already the case elsewhere – Ohio State won’t even be on the board.
“Georgia handled its business and should be the clear-cut No. 1 seed. USC, TCU and Oregon are all in contention,” Pearson said. “Clemson suffers another defeat that hurts its chances, even with an ACC title. We’ll see how the market shapes up after today.”
Clemson, a 14.5-point home favorite against South Carolina, lost 31-30 to fall to 10-2.
Seismic Heisman shift
Michigan flattened not only Ohio State’s title hopes, but likely Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud’s Heisman Trophy hopes, too. Stroud threw two fourth-quarter interceptions, helping seal Ohio State’s fate.
Now, USC QB Caleb Williams is at the head of the Heisman Trophy odds class. Prior to Ohio State’s loss, Williams was the +110 second choice in FOX Bet’s odds to win the Heisman. After the Buckeyes’ loss, Williams shot all the way to a hefty -1500 favorite to secure the trophy.
Stroud fell from the -133 favorite pregame to +3000 afterward.
“The Heisman race is now centered around USC QB Caleb Williams,” Griffe said. “A competent performance vs. Notre Dame this evening makes him a virtual lock after C.J. Stroud’s fourth quarter and the Ohio State loss.”
As of 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, BetMGM hadn’t reposted Heisman odds, but there’s no doubt about the front-runner.
“We’ll see Caleb Williams take a huge leap in Heisman odds over Stroud,” Magee said.
Two weeks ago, Stroud was a +130 favorite at BetMGM, while Williams was the +1100 fourth choice, with Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker (+300) and Michigan running back Blake Corum (+600) at second and third, respectively.
A week ago – with Corum and Hooker having suffered injuries, and furthermore, Hooker’s Vols getting blown out at South Carolina – Stroud moved into minus-money territory as the -130 favorite, and Williams leapt to +125.
Now, Williams has the edge. But WynnBet’s Pearson warns it’s not over yet.
“Watch out for performances from [TCU’s] Max Duggan and [Oregon’s] Bo Nix. Lots of things can still happen in this race,” Pearson said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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