MLB odds: 2022 Wild Card best bets for Phillies-Cardinals, Rays-Guardians

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

The MLB Wild Card Round has moved on to Game 2, and I have you covered from a betting perspective.

I will guide you through these playoffs by giving you daily study materials. That homework consists of previewing each game with some bets I like for the daily slate.

That is the school bell, which means class is back in session!

Here are my favorite bets for Saturday, with odds via Fox Bet.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians (12 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN2)

One thing we’ve already seen this postseason is starters going deep into games. Both starters for Tampa Bay and Cleveland went at least seven innings on Friday.

If this trend is not sustained, the Guardians will have the bullpen advantage. Cleveland has a bullpen expected fielding independent pitching of 3.47, second-best in the majors. The Rays, who normally have an exceptional ranking, come in 15th (3.88).

Emmanuel Clase, Trevor Stephan & Co. can maintain what should be dominant pitching by Triston McKenzie, who has one of the lower walk rates in baseball (5.9%).

I like the Guardians to do enough to win on the run line. Tyler Glasnow going over six strikeouts is also a bet where I’m leaning.

PICK: Guardians run line (+140 at FOX Bet)

Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays (4:00 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN)

Aaron Nola has been one of the more effective pitchers in baseball. The righty has done an outstanding job getting hitters to chase and preventing good contact from being made. His four-seam fastball has a lot of horizontal movement, and his curve can narrowly stay in the strike zone. But this may be a bad matchup for Nola, as the Cardinals have thrived against four-seamers and split-fingers. FanGraphs’ weighted numbers rank the Cardinals in the top five in MLB against each type of pitch.

We’ve already discussed the hot bats the Phillies bring with them. Bet on the total to go over.

PICK: Over 6.5 total runs scored by both teams combined (-120 on FOX Bet)

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San Diego Padres @ New York Mets (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN)

We use Statcast data instead of regular box score data because the physical elements of the game are more predictive than the hits and runs themselves. However, while the Blue Jays were shut out in Game 1, only once all season did Toronto hang back-to-back goose eggs. There’s a reason why Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Matt Chapman and Bo Bichette all have hard-hit rates greater than 50%.

The Mariners’ Robbie Ray has a hard-hit rate allowed of 39.1%, which is in the bottom half of MLB because his sinker has not become an option. Too many good hitters for both ball clubs not to produce runs.

I like the Over.

PICK: Over 7 runs scored by both teams combined (-110 at FOX Bet)

Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals (8:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN2)

One thing that makes Mets hitting so pesky is their 19.7% strikeout rate, third-best in MLB. With batting champion Jeff McNeil leading the way (10.4% strikeout rate), New York is meant to get into an opposing bullpen early, ranking second in plate appearances.

Pete Alonso (40 home runs) and Daniel Vogelbach each have wRC+ marks above 140, so they can produce enough offense in different ways. While San Diego has outstanding pitching that’s gotten them to the postseason, the Mets have enough bats to take Game 2.

My lean is Mets moneyline.

PICK: Mets run line

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.