MLB odds: Best and worst teams against the spread at All-Star break

Now that we are at the mid-point of the MLB season, this is the perfect time to review the first half from a betting perspective. 

Let’s dive into the betting trends thus far this season and more, including the best and worst teams against the spread.  

While any midseason summary would need to make mention of the scorching first half of the New York Yankees, the surging Seattle Mariners, the mundane efforts of the Chicago White Sox, and, despite the fact they have two MVP candidates, the mind-boggling futility of the Los Angeles Angels; a gambling recap analysis is bound to uncover a few surprises. 

The first surprise comes while looking at the best teams against the spread (ATS). FOX Sports Research found that the top five teams ATS are:  

1. Baltimore Orioles: 61-31 ATS
2. Los Angeles Dodgers: 53-37 ATS
3. Texas Rangers: 51-39 ATS
4. Arizona Diamondbacks: 52-40 ATS
5. Boston Red Sox: 51-42 ATS

Although they are in last place in the toughest division in baseball and have a recent history of losing, the Orioles are the most profitable team ATS this season with a 20.6% return on investment (ROI). They started the year with low expectations after winning only 49 games last season, and at FOX Bet their expected wins number heading into the season was just 62.5 games. The O’s already have 46 wins, are sitting at .500 and are a mere 3.5 games out of the wild card. 

The books clearly undervalued Baltimore’s young pitching talent, namely the sensational Tyler Wells, and they’ve been paying for it all season long. As we go forward, expect these odds to shrink as everyone adjusts, but keep an eye on the Orioles’ futures. If they can develop their bats, we could be witnessing quite the turnaround in Charm City. For now, ride the underdog wave while you can as they are 8-2 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games. 

On the other side of the coin, we have the worst teams ATS: 

1. Toronto Blue Jays: 40-52 ATS
2. Washington Nationals: 41-53 ATS
3. Kansas City Royals: 40-51 ATS
4. Milwaukee Brewers: 41-52 ATS
5. Minnesota Twins: 42-52 ATS

So to recap, the AL East has the best team in baseball, the best team against the spread and also the worst team against the spread. Yes, the Blue Jays have the worst record ATS in MLB and are the third-least profitable team ATS this season with a whopping -14.3% ROI. 

Unlike the Orioles, the Blue Jays had high expectations this season, coming into the year with an expected wins number of 92.5 (tied with the Houston Astros and Yankees for most in the AL). They have 50 wins, sit 14.5 games behind the Yanks and just fired manager Charlie Montoyo a couple of months after signing him to an extension. 

In this instance, the books, and the fans, obviously overvalued Toronto’s abilities on the field. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez have been underwhelming at the plate. And outside of Kevin Gausman and Alex Manoah, the rotation has struggled with control and injuries while the bullpen has not been up to par. 

All of this has led to a woeful ATS record as Toronto’s high expectations led to laying runs that the team could not overcome. With the firing of Montoyo, keep an eye on these lines going forward as an adjustment with the books might lead to value plays if interim manager John Schneider can restore this talented group’s confidence. If that happens, don’t expect the Blue Jays to be on the worst ATS list at the end of the season. Adjust your wagers accordingly. 

As for the totals, a couple of teams stick out when it comes to overs and unders.

Per FOX Sports Research, the three best over teams in MLB this season are: 

1. Cincinnati Reds: Over in 56% of games (51 of 91 games)
2. Toronto Blue Jays: Over in 55.9% of games (52 of 93 games)
3. San Francisco Giants: Over in 54.9% of games (50 of 91 games)

The Reds are the third-worst team in baseball and won’t sniff the playoffs. However, the whole season is not for naught, especially for bettors. Cincy has the best percentage at hitting the over in baseball. How did this happen?

Injuries and a poor bullpen. 

Cincinnati has used over 50 different players this season, while it has had over 30 on the injured list. All of this movement appears to create low run estimations from the books because of the lineup uncertainty. 

When this is coupled with the worst bullpen in the majors (ERA 5.43), you can find yourself with artificially low run totals that get hammered. The Reds have given up 497 runs this season, the second most in the league. Continue to get paid on Reds’ overs while books try to adjust.  

On the flip side, the three best under teams are:

1. Houston Astros: Under in 61.5% of games (56 of 91 games)
2. Detroit Tigers: Under in 59.8% of games (55 of 92 games)
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: Under in 57.8% of games (52 of 90)

The Astros have hit the under in 61.5% of their games. With Justin Verlander and the rotation they have, is this any surprise? The Astros have expectations of another World Series trophy this season, so we anticipate the excellence on the mound to only get better as the season progresses. Continue to hit the under on the Astros for a profit.

As the second half of the season gets underway, are there any betting trends you already have your sights set on? If so, be sure to get your wagers in at FOX Bet!

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