MLB odds: Keep it simple, bet on the Atlanta Braves to win it all

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Class is back in session! Today’s topic is a straightforward one: the Atlanta Braves. 

If my friends know anything about me, it’s that I’m not one to brag (quiet Jason McIntyre). Last month, I explained the value of betting on the Braves to win the World Series. Since then, Atlanta owns the longest winning streak this season and has trimmed the division deficit roughly in half (let’s pretend I didn’t also recommend the Phillies). 

This midseason run already looks eerily similar to the 2021 season. After a brutal start, the Braves pieced together enough victories to stay competitive, lost a superstar, continued winning, then pulled off enough postseason upsets to win a championship. 

This time, while Atlanta will be without second baseman Ozzie Albies for at least a few months because of a fractured foot, they do have the services of Ronald Acuña Jr. He has been about as consistent a power hitter as any big leaguer. For instance, Acuña’s average exit velocity, which measures how fast the ball travels after making contact with the bat, ranks in the 95th percentile in MLB.   

With all of this success comes the big gambling question. Is there potential for backing the Braves in futures markets? 

Let’s break down which Atlanta wagers I like, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet. 

PICK: Braves to win World Series (+1600 at FOX Bet)

One thing worth mentioning now is how MLB has revamped its postseason and how we should approach our futures differently, no matter which ballclubs you are betting on.

Starting this postseason, 12 teams will make the playoffs. The two division winners with the best record from each league get automatic byes into the Division Series. The other four teams in each league will play a best-of-three series: the third-place division winner faces the third-place wild card team, while the first-place and second-place wild card teams play each other. 

Another wrinkle is that the first-round will only take place at one location. The third-place division winner will host its opening round, while the first-place wild card team will host theirs. 

As with any sport, playing fewer games en route to a championship is always better. The greater chance of injuries and exhaustion from more games outweighs any positives to be gained from extra field time. Because the baseball postseason is so volatile, one of the safer things you can do is to bet on teams that currently don’t have a bye, but can play well enough to earn one after Game 162. 

Aggregating several projections, Atlanta currently has a 26.55% chance of winning the NL East. However, given the state of the NL Central, if the Braves win their division, they have a solid chance of earning a bye, thereby shortening their odds of winning it all. 

This means it is not too late to hop on the Atlanta bandwagon from a gambling perspective. Yes, there is still time to take the Braves to win the World Series. I would also sprinkle some money on them to win the division (+300 at FOX Bet) and pennant (+800 at FOX Bet).

PICK: Spencer Strider to win NL Rookie of the Year (+1400 at FOX Bet)

Since 2011, roughly one-third of all Rookie of the Year honors have gone to someone who has spent time on the mound. 

This season, voters may already be predisposed to picking a pitcher because of how dominant many of them have been. While MacKenzie Gore of the Padres is a sizable betting favorite, Strider ranks second among league rookies in FanGraphs WAR. He only has three fewer strikeouts than Gore, and, thanks to a dangerous fastball, has allowed fewer home runs.

Also, when analyzing Statcast data, it’s wise to look for pitchers who have a better expected batting average allowed than actual batting average allowed, because it can suggest better outings in the future. Strider’s difference of -0.024 makes him a value play right now, especially at +1400.

As for a maybe bet, I recently recommended Max Fried for Cy Young. Hopefully, you snagged him at those odds, because they have shortened from +2000 to +1500. The closing line value may have dissipated on Fried, though he is having a dominant season and could still be in the mix at the end. If you missed out on him at 20-1, give him a look at this price.

Lastly, before you call me a Braves homer, here is a bet I DO NOT like: 

Ronald Acuña Jr. to win NL MVP (+1600 at FOX Bet)

How could I go against Acuña after using him as evidence for why the Braves could repeat? Because there’s no value in his current number. 

Let’s keep it simple and only look at slugging percentage. Using a simple projection before the season began, Acuña was going to have the third-best SLG in the NL (.532). Instead, it ranks outside the top 15 (.516).   

If you believe there is value in preseason projections, then Acuña’s hitting should improve the rest of the season. After all, the Braves outfielder missed the first three weeks of the season recovering from his knee injury. However, there may not be enough time for him to surpass the likes of Mookie Betts, Paul Goldschmidt and Manny Machado. So this bet is a pass for me at this number.

To sum it up, betting on the Braves to win the division, NL and World Series are still smart bets, as is taking Spencer Strider to win Rookie of the Year. So run, don’t walk to FOX Bet to get your ATL wagers in.

Again, this is class: Do it for the A. 

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football.  Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.