MLB odds: Will Luis Castillo trade end Mariners’ playoff drought?

The Seattle Mariners made a pre-trade deadline move as they try to end the longest active playoff drought among the North American “Big Four” sports.

The Mariners acquired two-time All-Star pitcher Luis Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds for four prospects on Friday night.

Here’s everything you need to know about the Mariners’ postseason odds, with odds via FOX Bet. For more baseball content, check out the MLB page at FOX Sports.

“He’s a stud that will help the Mariners in a big way down the stretch,” FOX Sports MLB betting analyst Edward Egros said. “The market does not have many starting arms available, and Seattle needed one, so this seems like a win for both teams. 

“And given the Mariners’ playoff drought has lasted longer than any North American team in the men’s four major sports, it’s a move they had to make with a high likelihood of success.”

SEATTLE MARINERS POSTSEASON ODDS *

Mariners win American League West Division: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)

Mariners win AL pennant: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)

Mariners win World Series: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)

* = as of 7/30/2022

RELATED: Trade deadline tracker

BetMGM data specialist Drew O’Dell said the Mariners’ odds to win the American League pennant or World Series dropped following the trade.

O’Dell said Seattle’s AL pennant odds dropped from +1800 to +1500 (+1400 at FOX Bet) and the Mariners’ chances to win it all went from +3500 to +3000.

O’Dell said the trade did not affect Seattle’s chances to win the AL West Division as the Houston Astros entered play Saturday with a 12-game lead. The Mariners entered Saturday in the second wild-card spot. 

What the Seattle Mariners will be getting with Luis Castillo joining the team via trade

Check out some season highlights from Luis Castillo after he was acquired by the Seattle Mariners.

Seattle is second in the AL in quality starts (48) and fourth in team ERA (3.65). Castillo is 4-4 with a 2.86 ERA and 90 strikeouts. Castillo’s salary is $7.35 million and he’s under team control through the 2023 season. 

“This strengthens their rotation down the stretch,” said Ryan Divish, who covers the Mariners for the Seattle Times. “They’ve been unbelievably lucky when it comes to the health of their starting pitchers. They’ve yet to have a pitcher miss a start due to injury or spend any time on the injured list. 

“There was also the issue of George Kirby’s overall workload. The rookie right-hander has thrown just 69 1/3 innings and they won’t push him over 120-130 innings this season.”

The prospects the Mariners gave up are shortstops Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo and right-handers Levi Stoudt and Andrew Moore. Marte was the Mariners’ top-rated prospect, Arroyo was third and Stoudt fifth.

“You have to give up talent to get talent,” Divish said. “The two top prospects – Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo – have never played above the Class-A level. 

“Marte is a physical specimen – 6-foot-3, 200-plus pounds at age 21 –  with power potential, but he likely won’t remain at shortstop. Most scouts believe that his poor fielding fundamentals and lack of arm strength will force him to left field.  

“Arroyo might end up being the best player of the group. He’s a plus defensive shortstop with speed and athleticism. There were questions about his hitting. He’s had a breakout this season at the Low-A level, surprising the Mariners with his bat-to-ball skills.”

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