MLB Playoff Watch: Cardinals start to separate in NL Central
By Rowan Kavner
FOX Sports MLB Writer
A seven-team race is developing for six National League playoff spots.
The Dodgers are running away with the West, 19.5 games ahead of the second-place Padres. The Cardinals are beginning to separate themselves from the Brewers, six games ahead entering Tuesday. The Mets and Braves continue to vie for the top spot in the East, with just three games between them, but the second-place finisher is already almost assured a wild card.
It’s a much clearer playoff picture in the NL than in the AL. The Giants, now 8.5 games back of a wild card and just one game ahead of the Diamondbacks, have been bumped off our latest list. Maybe that changes by mid-September, but for now, it leaves the Phillies, Padres and Brewers as the three likeliest challengers for the final two wild-card positions.
Arrow pointing: Up
Overall record: 89-38, first in NL West
Since trade deadline: 19-5
Past 10 games: 8-2
Playoff odds (via FanGraphs): 100%
Freddie Freeman and Trea Turner continue to pace the majors in hits. Mookie Betts, the reigning NL Player of the Week, leads the NL in runs scored and is already one homer shy of tying his career high. The Dodgers have a plus-286 run differential this year; the next closest team is the Yankees at plus-193.
Nothing seems capable of slowing them down.
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They’re missing Walker Buehler for the rest of the year. They’ve been without Clayton Kershaw for almost all of August. All-Star and Cy Young candidate Tony Gonsolin is the latest pitcher to hit the injured list. And they just keep winning. They went 21-5 in July; a win Tuesday would match that record in August.
They only need to win 18 of their last 35 games to set their franchise win record. They would need to go 28-7 or better to set the MLB record for wins in a season. Considering they’ve won 44 of their last 54 games, it’s well within the realm of possibility.
Arrow pointing: Neutral
Overall record: 82-47, first in NL East
Since trade deadline: 17-10
Past 10 games: 6-4
Playoff odds: 100%
Jeff McNeil has paced the Mets offense and leads MLB with 41 hits in August, his most in a calendar month in his career, while Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer have been arguably the two best pitchers in the National League this month (by fWAR, they rank first and tied for second, respectively). The trio of deGrom, Scherzer and Chris Bassitt looks as frightening as any in baseball.
Still, the bullpen has been shaky. The Mets had a chance to separate themselves in the East this month and have not after a series defeat in Atlanta two weeks ago and back-to-back losses to the Yankees last week. The offense averaged fewer than three runs a game last week after getting shut out Sunday, ending their chance to sweep the Rockies.
An intriguing matchup between the NL’s best awaits this week in New York as the Mets host the Dodgers. After that, it looks like smooth sailing. The Mets follow with matchups against the Nationals, Pirates, Marlins and Cubs and Pirates again. This looks like a tremendous opportunity for the Mets to gain more ground on the surging Braves.
Speaking of …
Arrow pointing: Up
Overall record: 79-50, second in NL East
Since trade deadline: 16-9
Past 10 games: 7-3
Playoff odds: 100%
The Braves were storming through August until running into an even hotter Cardinals club this weekend. If they win their next two games against the Rockies, it will mark their third consecutive month with single-digit losses, a testament to Atlanta’s second-half surge.
The youth movement continues. The NL Rookie of the Year is likely a two-man race between the Braves’ Spencer Strider (8-4, 2.87 ERA, 13.3 K/9), and Michael Harris (135 OPS+, 3.6 fWAR). While he slowed down in St. Louis over the weekend, tantalizing rookie infielder Vaughn Grissom has added his own stamp in Atlanta this month.
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Similarly to New York, the bullpen has presented some recent hiccups. The Braves would have won the series this weekend in St. Louis, but Kenley Jansen walked in the winning run in the ninth inning Saturday. Atlanta again held a late lead Sunday before a four-run eighth inning for the Cardinals. Despite the losses, the Braves have pulled themselves within three games of the Mets after winning 15 of their previous 17 games.
Arrow pointing: Sky-high
Overall record: 75-54, first in NL Central
Since trade deadline: 20-6
Past 10 games: 7-3
Playoff odds: 98.1%
When the month began, the Cardinals trailed the Brewers by three games. They now lead by six.
The Cardinals haven’t stopped winning since adding Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana at the deadline. Montgomery is 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA in five Cardinals starts, while Quintana is 1-1 with a 3.28 ERA in five starts with his new club. The left-handed duo added needed stability to the St. Louis rotation.
Still, it’s all about the offense in St. Louis.
The club’s .888 OPS and 151 wRC+ in August are by far the best in baseball. The offense continues to be guided by Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, who have each been at least a full win better than every NL player other than Mookie Betts and Manny Machado this year. Albert Pujols‘ chase toward 700 homers adds even more excitement. Things are trending way up in St. Louis, and it doesn’t look likely to stop.
By FanGraphs’ measures, the Cardinals have the easiest strength of schedule remaining. Outside of an eight-game stretch from Sept. 20-28 against the Padres, Dodgers and Brewers, the rest of their games are against clubs with losing records. They play a combined 20 games against the Pirates, Reds and Nationals.
Arrow pointing: Slightly up
Overall record: 72-57, third in NL East
Since trade deadline: 17-9
Past 10 games: 7-3
Playoff odds: 83.2%
When you lose a series to the first-place Mets, matchups against the Pirates and Reds can provide a welcome pick-me-up.
Despite sitting in third place in the East, the Phillies currently occupy the second wild card spot. Interim manager Rob Thomson is 50-28 since taking over, leading the Phillies to their best start since 2011. Bryce Harper is back, recording hits in each of his first four games off the injured list. J.T. Realmuto is mashing this month and Nick Castellanos is enjoying one of his best months in Philadelphia. The starting pitching has been terrific in August. There are many reasons to be excited.
Still, the bullpen — a problem area the Phillies tried to address at the deadline — remains volatile (a common theme in the East). Philadelphia relievers sport a 4.95 ERA in August, a number that soared Monday as the Diamondbacks scored 13 unanswered runs in their largest comeback in franchise history. Corey Knebel’s season is over, and Seranthony Dominguez — the Phillies’ most reliable reliever this year — is on the IL. Deadline acquisition David Robertson has provided crucial insurance with Dominguez down, but the Phillies will want more stability at the back end with every game vital from here on out. Philadelphia still has seven more games against Atlanta and ends the season in Houston.
Arrow pointing: Slightly down
Overall record: 71-59, second in NL West
Since trade deadline: 11-13
Past 10 games: 5-5
Playoff odds: 67.5%
You can take the glass-half-full or half-empty look here. I’m leaning toward the former.
The Padres have a losing record since the deadline. The Fernando Tatis Jr. suspension took the winds out of their sails. Acquisitions Josh Bell and Jake Cronenworth each have a sub-.650 OPS in San Diego, while Josh Hader has allowed 12 runs in 4 ⅔ innings. Hader was, at least temporarily, removed from the closer role after blowing his lone save chance. Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove have ERAs over 4.00 in August. None of that is great.
Still, the Padres currently occupy the final wild card spot. Manny Machado’s spectacular season continues. Juan Soto and Bell, who’s now on a five-game hitting streak, are picking up steam. Interim closer Nick Martinez and Adrian Morejon haven’t allowed a run out of the pen this month. If Hader can regain his form, and Soto’s power continues to tick up, this remains a team with the pieces to make noise.
Arrow pointing: Slightly down
Overall record: 68-59, second in NL Central
Since trade deadline: 11-13
Past 10 games: 5-5
Playoff odds: 50.8%
Despite vastly different approaches at the deadline, the Brewers and Padres have sported identical records since. The latter went all in, providing reasons to believe things might trend up. The former did not.
The Brewers did nothing to bolster an offense that sports a .220 batting average in August, despite strong months from Keston Hiura, Rowdy Tellez, Hunter Renfroe and Willy Adames. Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta are trending in the right direction, but Cy Young candidate Corbin Burnes (1-2, 5.61 ERA in August) is not. The pitching staff as a whole, the area the Brewers should be able to rely on, has a 4.06 ERA this month. While Hader has stumbled mightily in a new uniform, Milwaukee’s remaining relievers have combined to go 6-for-14 in their save opportunities this month.
The result so far is an 11-14 record in August, leaving the Brewers on the outside looking in for a playoff spot. The Cardinals are demonstrating no signs of slowing down and hold the easiest strength of schedule the rest of the way, but Milwaukee’s path isn’t much more difficult. The Brewers have started to turn things around with three straight wins against the Cubs and Pirates, piling on 23 runs in those games. They have two more games against Pittsburgh before facing Arizona, Colorado, San Francisco and Cincinnati. If the Brewers are to become serious playoff contenders again, the time is now.
Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and NL West for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers’ editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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