MLB relevance index: Which teams will have the most active offseasons?

Last week, we ranked our top 30 free agents as an important starting point for understanding the offseason ahead and the biggest names we could see on the move across the league.

Now it’s time to take a more holistic look at the Hot Stove through the lens of the 30 teams competing to improve their rosters ahead of Opening Day 2023. We know which individual players will dominate the headlines in the coming months, but which teams should we expect to be the most active?

This isn’t strictly a matter of which teams will ultimately spend the most, but rather which teams will most often come up in pursuits of big-name free agents or high-profile trade targets. Put more simply, which teams will dominate the headlines until pitchers and catchers report in spring training?

The Headliners

1. Yankees: There’s no version of this offseason — or most offseasons — where the Yankees aren’t relevant. If they successfully re-sign Aaron Judge, that’s great — but then the focus becomes how they can augment the roster around him considering how flawed the team looked by the end of the 2022 season. And if they lose Judge? Well, that will be one of the biggest free agent departures of all time and then they will be tasked with back-filling a 62-home-run-sized hole in the lineup. Whether we like it or not, the drama in the Bronx will be front and center for the next three months.

2. Mets: As with Judge, if Jacob deGrom leaves, that’s a huge deal. If deGrom stays, it’s … also a huge deal. The Mets already gave Edwin Diaz the biggest reliever contract ever, but they still have almost an entire bullpen to rebuild around him — not to mention multiple rotation spots if deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker all depart in free agency. Unlike last winter, when the big-time additions like Max Scherzer and Starling Marte felt more like luxuries than necessities, the Mets need to make multiple huge signings and/or trades this offseason in order to maintain the lofty new standard they set in the 2022 regular season. It’s eminently doable with Steve Cohen in charge, but there are a ton of moving parts here, making them incredibly entertaining and relevant as a neutral observer.

3. Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw is back as expected, but Tyler Anderson’s QO decision may determine whether another top-tier arm is a priority over replacing or retaining Trea Turner at shortstop. As usual, the Dodgers have a ton of young players waiting in the wings for a bigger chunk of playing time but you can never count LA out on a pursuit of another superstar if the opportunity presents itself, even if it blocks some of the next wave of talent.

The Wannabe Headliners

4. Giants: They’ve emerged as seemingly the likeliest destination if Judge is to indeed leave the Yankees — but just how likely is that, really? Even if it is a slim chance in reality, the remote possibility of that happening will dominate the news cycle as long as Judge remains available. More importantly, Farhan Zaidi has a ton of holes to fill if San Francisco is going to return to contention any time soon after The Great Regression of 2022. With a ton of money to work with and a clear willingness to spend it, this team should be plenty active regardless of how the Judge pursuit plays out.

5. Rangers: Texas spent half a billion dollars on its middle infield last winter; could it do the same this offseason on the rotation? That might be a bit of a stretch, but it’s clear fortifying every corner of the pitching staff will be the priority this winter. However the Rangers choose to continue to spend aggressively, they have to hope it results in a better season than 94 losses and fourth place the way it did in 2022.

Playoff Teams Trying To Improve

6. Phillies: The surprising defending NL champs now coast into the offseason feeling like more legitimate contenders than any of us thought even in September. They were spending big even before the high-priced additions helped lead them to the World Series. There’s no reason to expect team owner John Middleton and GM Dave Dombrowski to ease off the gas now. This is an excellent landing spot for any of the top free-agent shortstops.

7. Braves: At least this time around we won’t be surprised if the Braves let beloved shortstop and one of the faces of the franchise in Dansby Swanson walk in free agency the way they did with Freddie Freeman. The question is, who is Matt Olson in this scenario if Swanson does depart?

8. Cardinals: Not only did Nolan Arenado opting into his contract give St. Louis one fewer thing to worry about this winter, it also should embolden it to add more high-end talent around him and Paul Goldschmidt while they are still in their primes. The Cards might be able to sleepwalk to another NL Central title, but if this team wants to elevate into a legitimate World Series contender, upgrades are needed. They should be in the mix for both the top shortstops and the best arms on the free agent market, and also have some chips to move in a big trade.

9. Padres: GM AJ Preller can be counted on to be mentioned frequently by MLB Trade Rumors in any offseason, but especially one with so many free agents out the door. He already retained one in Robert Suarez, but left field is a giant hole that needs to be filled… unless Fernando Tatis Jr. is going to play there?! Stay tuned!

10. Mariners: Jerry Dipoto built a roster that ended the playoff drought, but as one of the most consistently active and creative heads of baseball operations in MLB, you know he’s coming up with all kinds of unexpected ways to help close the gap with Houston in the AL West. Dipoto has made an epic number of moves since joining the Mariners in 2015, but signing a big-name free-agent hitter has not been one of them. Is this the winter that changes, or will he go the trade route once again?

11. Blue Jays: Toronto’s core is firmly in place, but an ugly early playoff exit should motivate this front office to continue pushing for a roster that could contend for a division title and a first-round bye in turn. Do they finally use that wealth of catching depth to bolster another part of the roster? This seems like a good time to do that.

12. Astros: So, uh, who exactly is in charge here? With James Click gone coming off a World Series victory, are we entering a Jerry Jones-esque era for owner Jim Crane where he’s effectively calling all the shots? This roster is obviously so good that it would be hard to mess things up too badly, but the degree to which Crane is involved will be fascinating moving forward. How that dynamic impacts keeping Justin Verlander in H-Town will also be intriguing.

It’s Go-Time … Or Is It?

13. Cubs: As hard as it was to say goodbye to all the faces of the 2016 team, the assumed purpose of such a drastic sell-off was to set the organization up to spend big when the time was right. So…are we there yet? Is this actually the best time to push forward? A promising second half would suggest it might be, but I’m still skeptical there are enough foundational pieces in place for it to be worth going all-in now. That said, a free agent as young as Carlos Correa might be perfect to build around moving forward.

14. Orioles: Baltimore, meanwhile, does seem to have the building blocks in place (see: Rutschman, Adley) to accelerate a push towards being a real playoff contender. It might not have the big-market financial upside of Chicago, but it’s not like it wasn’t spending a good amount when it was winning a ton from 2012-2016. I won’t believe the Orioles will land a huge free agent until I see it, but it does sound like they’re going to try. Perhaps a blockbuster trade utilizing their horde of exciting hitting prospects is more likely.

Let’s Pretend 2022 Never Happened and Try To Get Better

15. Red Sox: This winter will be defined by the team’s ability to extend Rafael Devers and/or retain Xander Bogaerts, two enormous decisions that are viewed even more critically by the fan base following the heartbreak of trading away Mookie Betts. That said, even if it succeeds in those ventures, there’s a lot of work to be done on a roster that just finished last in the AL East.

16. Twins: Unlike the other three shortstops who seem to have varying levels of likelihood to stay put, everyone seems to be completely writing off Minnesota’s ability to retain Carlos Correa. I get it, but it’s not like anyone expected the Twins to get him in the first place, and they clearly loved having him around. They have very few long-term financial commitments besides Byron Buxton, and there are few better options to commit to long-term across the league than Correa. Even if the superstar does depart, I think the Twins will remain plenty active in free agency.

17. White Sox: The maneuverability appears limited here, with an unwillingness to spend much more and a lack of prospect depth from which to trade. There’s still an exciting base of talent here, but like Minnesota, Chicago is going to need much better luck in the injury department if it is going to compete with Cleveland in the AL Central in 2023. Whether it actually tries to improve the roster significantly — or just rolls the dice with what its got and hopes to be healthier — remains to be seen.

18. Brewers: With David Stearns stepping back, the focus now turns to new GM Matt Arnold to figure out how to help this roster bounce back from a miserable second half that saw the Cardinals zoom past Milwaukee in the NL Central standings with ease. That would be a challenge if St. Louis stood pat, but it could be an even taller task if the Cardinals improve markedly, as many expect them to.

19. Angels: Sure, GM Perry Minasian might have already publicly declared that the team won’t trade Shohei Ohtani this winter, but rumors will undeniably continue to swirl. How exactly is Minasian planning to build a legitimate contender around Ohtani and Mike Trout? A potential sale of the franchise looming over the whole situation only makes things all the more complicated.

Let’s Make A Deal

20. Guardians: Cleveland headlines this tier of teams that seem pretty unlikely to wade into the high-profile free agent waters but still could make news by swinging some interesting trades. It seems like the Guardians could badly use a real bopper in the middle of the lineup, but they also just won the division relatively easily hitting a bunch of singles, so perhaps they won’t be as motivated to improve as we might think.

21. Rays: Tampa Bay is perpetually dealing with a 40-man crunch, as its roster is overflowing with decent position players and competent pitchers that plenty of other teams would love to have. If the Rays can’t land a free-agent bat on a short-term deal, is there a blockbuster trade to be made to dramatically improve the lackluster offense?

22. Marlins: Last offseason’s offensive acquisitions were a disappointment, but that doesn’t mean the Fish shouldn’t stop trying to acquire hitters. This offense still needs a big-time boost and trading from its wealth of pitching depth is the likeliest path forward.

23. Diamondbacks: The Snakes were sneaky-solid down the stretch and have a good young core of position players to go along with a legitimate ace in Zac Gallen. The problem: The NL West isn’t getting any easier. Perhaps they are a dark-horse landing spot for a big-name free agent, but the D-Backs would need to improve their pitching drastically to even sniff the third wild card conversation.

The Rockies

24. Rockies: Colorado perpetually belongs in a tier of its own due to the unpredictable nature of its team-building, which has fluctuated wildly from effectively salary-dumping Nolan Arenado only to hand Kris Bryant an enormous pile of money a year later. I have no idea what to expect here.

AL Central Teams With New Front Offices

25. Tigers: New GM Scott Harris has his hands full with this imbalanced and deeply flawed roster, and will likely focus on overhauling the bulk of the internal player development processes before giving the actual roster a makeover. The owner has shown willingness to spend to get better quickly, it just didn’t work very well last winter. So it’s unclear how much appetite Detroit would have for a similar strategy this offseason.

26. Royals: Whereas Harris is a completely fresh face in Detroit, the Royals opted to elevate the right-hand man of ousted GM Dayton Moore, JJ Picollo, to oversee baseball operations moving forward. How much should we realistically expect to change after a disappointing 2022? This winter should start to give us some clues.

Eyes on 2024

27. Pirates: The early acquisition of Ji-Man Choi ight not be the most earth-shattering transaction, but acquiring a player of his stature with just a year left on his contract does suggest Pittsburgh’s general intention of not being entirely awful in 2023. With a wave of exciting young talent — headlined by catcher and former No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis expected to join shortstop Oneil Cruz at some point next season — there are some parallels you could draw to how we viewed the Orioles coming into 2022, if you really squint (emphasis on really). At the very least, it seems Pittsburgh’s worst days are behind it.

Eyes on 2025

28. A’s: Forgive me for counting out the team with the lowest payroll in MLB, but I’m going to comfortably make the assumption that Oakland will not be in the mix for deGrom or any of the top shortstops. That said, it does have one of the most appealing trade chips around in Sean Murphy, and trading one of the best catchers in baseball would surely make headlines.

29. Nationals: Rather than wait until this winter for the Juan Soto blockbuster, the Nationals got it over with this past summer, leaving them without many obvious pieces left to sell off as part of their rebuild. On the other hand, perhaps it’s time to build around Joey Meneses with some big-name free agents? We’ll see.

30. Reds: Like Oakland and Washington, all the biggest trades are behind Cincinnati, leaving it with an odd roster that arguably has more functional young talent than the A’s or Nats, but not nearly enough to compete anytime soon.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.