NBA odds: Conference finals lines, picks
The NBA is down to its version of the Final Four. Who ya got?
Let’s dive into the odds for the conference finals — the Boston Celtics–Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference and the Golden State Warriors–Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference.
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RELATED: Updated NBA title odds
FOX Bet trading operations specialist Martin Pascual said the surprising Mavericks will be riding an emotional high after ousting the top-seeded Phoenix Suns, but physical fatigue may be an issue.
“After that grueling seven-game series against the Suns, I am not sure how much left Dallas has in the tank,” Pascual stated. “I also like Golden State’s experience over them, which I think will make a big difference in this series.”
The Celtics, the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference via tiebreaker, will face the top-seeded Heat. Miami has the benefit of more rest after eliminating the Philadelphia 76ers in six games, winning each game by nine or more points.
“It feels like the Heat are a more complete team than the Celtics,” Pascual said. “As we’ve seen in the regular season, despite their star players missing so many games (Jimmy Butler played 57 regular-season games, Tyler Herro 66 and Bam Adebayo 56), they still got the one seed in the East. Additionally, if they reach a Game 7, it will be played on their home court.”
PICK: Heat to win series in seven games (+475 at time of pick, currently +240 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $34 total)
PICK: Warriors to win series in six games (+425 at time of bet, currently +1200 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $130 total)
Besides Mavericks fans, there’s another group celebrating the ouster of the Suns – the sports books.
“BetMGM had the biggest liability on Phoenix to win the NBA championship so the Suns losing in Game 7 was a good outcome for BetMGM,” BetMGM sports trader Christian Cipollini said. “Looking at the final four, any team but the Warriors winning would be good for the book.”
UPCOMING GAMES
Heat @ Celtics (8:30 p.m. ET Monday, ABC; Miami leads series 2-1)
Point spread: Celtics -7 (Celtics favored to win by more than 7 points, otherwise Heat cover)
Moneyline: Celtics -303 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $13.30 total); Heat +230 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $31.50 total)
Total scoring over/under: 206.5 points scored by both teams combined
NOTE: Miami is the first team in NBA postseason history to win only two quarters in the first three games and have a series lead, according to Elias Sports. The Heat have won the third quarter of Game 1 and the first quarter of Game 3 by a combined 46 points.
SERIES WINNER ODDS
Heat -125 (bet $10 to win $18); Celtics +100 (bet $10 to win $20)
Warriors @ Mavericks (9 p.m. ET Tuesday, TNT; Golden State leads series 3-0)
Point spread: Mavericks -1 (Mavericks favored to win by more than 1 point, otherwise Warriors cover)
Moneyline: Mavericks -125 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.17 total); Warriors +125 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $22.50 total);
Total scoring over/under: 216.5 points scored by both teams combined
SERIES WINNER ODDS
Warriors -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10); Mavericks +1800 (bet $10 to win $190)
COMPLETED GAMES
Warriors 109, Mavericks 100
Point spread: Warriors (+3.5) cover by winning outright
Moneyline: Warriors win as +125 underdogs (bet $10 to win $22.50 total); Mavericks were -162 favorites (bet $10 to win $16.17 total)
Total scoring over/under: Under 216.5 points scored by both teams combined (209)
NOTES: Dallas’ Luka Doncic scored 40 points, the eighth time he’s scored 40 or more points in the postseason, a Mavericks record. Dallas is 2-6 in those games. … The Warriors have won at least one road game in 26 consecutive playoff series, an NBA record.
Heat 109, Celtics 103 (Miami leads series 2-1)
Point spread: Heat (+6) cover by winning outright
Moneyline: Heat win as +200 underdogs (bet $10 to win $30 total); Celtics were -278 favorites (bet $10 to win $13.60 total)
Total scoring over/under: Over 208 points scored by both teams combined (212)
NOTE: Miami star Jimmy Butler sat out the second half with inflammation in his right knee but early reports said the Heat expect him to play in Game 4. … Boston sank two 3-pointers in a span of 9.7 seconds in the final minute to help push the game over.
Warriors 126, Mavericks 117
Point spread: Warriors (-6.5) cover by winning by more than 6.5 points (9)
Moneyline: Warriors win as -278 favorites (bet $10 to win $13.60 total); Mavericks were +200 underdogs (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Total scoring over/under: Over 214 points scored by both teams combined (243)
Celtics 127, Heat 102
Point spread: Celtics (+1.5) cover by winning outright
Moneyline: Celtics -105 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $19.52 total); Heat -125 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $18 total)
Total scoring over/under: Over 207 points scored by both teams combined (229()
Warriors 112, Mavericks 87
Point spread: Warriors (-5.5) cover by winning by more than 5.5 points (25)
Moneyline: Warriors win as -250 favorites (bet $10 to win $14 total); Mavericks were +185 underdogs (bet $10 to win $28.50 total)
Total scoring over/under: Under 214.5 points scored by both teams combined (199)
NOTES: Dallas’ last lead was 13-11 with 7:23 remaining in the first quarter. … Golden State’s Steph Curry (21 points, 12 rebounds) was the lone player with a double-double. … Every Warriors starter scored in double figures. … Golden State held Dallas to 31-for-86 shooting from the floor (36 %) and 11-for-48 shooting (22.9 %) on 3-pointers.
Heat 118, Celtics 107
Point spread: Heat (-4.5) covers by winning by more than 4.5 points (11)
Moneyline: Heat win as -200 favorites (bet $10 to win $15 total); Celtics were +145 underdogs (bet $10 to win $24.50 total)
Total scoring over/under: Over 203 points scored by both teams combined (225)
NOTE: Miami’s Jimmy Butler scored 27 of his 41 points in the second half as the Heat erased an early Boston lead. … The Heat outscored the Celtics 39-14 in the third quarter. … Boston was without Marcus Smart (foot sprain) and Al Horford (COVID-19 protocol).
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