NFC South guide: Predictions for Saints, Panthers, Buccaneers, Falcons
By Bucky Brooks
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
The NFC South has football’s biggest star, Tom Brady. It has one of the NFL’s most consistently competitive teams, the New Orleans Saints, looking to prove it can keep that up without quarterback Drew Brees and coach Sean Payton. It has a team with some promising pieces that searches for an identity, the Carolina Panthers. And it has another squad in the very early stages of a rebuild, the Atlanta Falcons. That sort of narrative variety is rare, and it means we’ll be able to track a lot of different stories from this group.
Without Sean Payton on the sidelines, the Saints are stepping into a new era with a new set of problem-solvers on the headsets. Dennis Allen and Pete Carmichael will attempt to solve the championship puzzle that has eluded the franchise in recent years.
While Allen has a defense that is primed and ready to compete with the elites, Carmichael must figure out how to help QB Jameis Winston play at a high level while getting each of the Saints’ perimeter playmakers (Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara) enough touches to enable them to make an impact on the game. If the team’s new playcaller can get it done, the Saints could march through the NFC behind a talented roster that looks like a championship contender on paper.
Strengths: It is hard to find a better defensive lineup than the one Allen trots out each week. The Saints have impact players at every level (Cam Jordan, Demario Davis, Marshon Lattimore and Tyrann Mathieu) with the ability to take over games. The clever defensive architect utilizes a mix of blitzes, simulated pressures and traditional zones to befuddle opponents while unleashing a pack of big hitters who love to thump runners and receivers all over the field. When the Saints bring energy and effort to the field, particularly at home games, there are few quarterbacks and opponents who can withstand the pressure.
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Weaknesses: The loss of Payton robs the Saints of an elite playcaller. The long-time head coach is a master at making in-game adjustments that alter momentum. Without Payton on the sidelines, the Saints’ offense could lose some of its explosiveness while breaking in a new playcaller. Although Carmichael has experience calling plays, he has big shoes to fill as the leader of an offense with outstanding firepower. Given the “Super Bowl or bust” mentality that hovers around this franchise, the pressure is on Carmichael to keep the offense humming this season.
Breakout Player: Linebacker Pete Werner could become a household name as an emerging tackling machine for a top-five defense. Werner’s instincts, awareness and anticipation enable him to stay around the action as an off-ball linebacker with natural playmaking skills. With Demario Davis commanding so much attention on the inside, Werner could emerge as the silent killer on a defense that sparks a deep postseason run.
Win-Loss Prediction: 12-5
Matt Rhule has searched near and far for a franchise quarterback to help the Panthers get over the hump. The trade for Baker Mayfield on the eve of training camp might have solved the team’s biggest issue while also breathing a little life into the building. The fifth-year pro has swagger and unshakable self-belief to complement a solid set of skills as a passer. When he is edgy and on his game, Mayfield is a dangerous playmaker with the potential to reverse a franchise’s fortunes.
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Strength: The Panthers’ defense has flourished under defensive coordinator Phil Snow. The grizzled defensive architect has blended creative college concepts with a traditional NFL scheme that has enabled the Panthers’ young defense to wreak havoc on foes around the league. With a collection of energetic playmakers like Jeremy Chinn, Jaycee Horn, Derrick Brown and Shaq Thompson anchoring the unit, the Panthers have the capacity to torment opponents with a variety of different looks and tactics that keep opposing quarterbacks guessing in the pocket. If this group can avoid the injury bug, the unit could emerge as the disruptive force that sparks a playoff run.
Weaknesses: The disappointing play the Panthers have gotten from their quarterbacks in the Rhule era has been the biggest reason why the team has fallen short of its playoff goals. The revolving door at the position has prevented the offense from developing an identity and the requisite chemistry needed to play at a high level. Although Mayfield is certainly an upgrade over his predecessors at the position, the jury is still out on whether he can single-handedly elevate the play of the offense.
Breakout Player: The departure of Haason Reddick as a free agent creates an opportunity for Yetur Gross-Matos to emerge for the Panthers. The extra-long pass rusher possesses the physical tools to take over the game off the edge, but he must display more consistency. If the third-year pro can find his groove as a pass rusher, the Panthers’ defense could overwhelm opponents with its individual and collective talent.
Win-Loss Prediction: 10-7
The return of TB12 might have prompted most within the football world to pencil the Buccaneers into Super Bowl LVII, but a spate of injuries and an impromptu vacation could derail the team’s plans before the season gets going.
The losses of Ryan Jensen and Aaron Stinnie weakened the interior of an offensive line that keeps the bullies away from Brady in the middle of the pocket. With Ali Marpet’s surprising retirement also impacting the unit, the line in front of the seven-time Super Bowl winner has suddenly become a huge question mark.
Although Brady has routinely overcome personnel deficiencies in the past, it is hard to expect a 45-year-old quarterback to carry an offense that cannot protect him in the pocket. Perhaps he can pull another rabbit out of the hat, but Brady’s magic could run out due to a series of injuries that impacts the supporting cast around him.
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Strength: The Buccaneers’ winning pedigree will give them a chance despite the injuries that have rocked their starting lineup. Brady has routinely found ways to win with short-handed lineups throughout his career, and his mere presence will raise the level of belief around the program. With TB12 in the huddle, the Buccaneers know they have a chance to win every time they run onto the field, and that confidence might enable them to overcome some deficiencies that would crush the dreams of most squads.
Weaknesses: Injuries and defections among the offensive line will make it hard for the offense to find a rhythm early in the season. The lack of chemistry and continuity within the group could lead to some blown assignments and identification errors that end up with their aging quarterback being hit more often. Although TB12 will help his offensive line with his quick release and exceptional pre-snap diagnostic skills, it might be some time before the Buccaneers’ offensive line plays sound football at the line of scrimmage.
Breakout Player: Second-year pro Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is poised to put up monster numbers as a designated pass rusher playing alongside a pair of monsters on the interior. Vita Vea and Akiem Hicks will command serious attention at the line of scrimmage, which should free Tryon-Shoyinka to take advantage of one-on-one matchups on the outside.
Win-Loss prediction: 9-8
Arthur Smith worked minor miracles a season ago by squeezing out seven wins with a roster that lacked supreme talent at several marquee spots. The creative playcaller will need to break out his A-game again to chalk up more wins utilizing a shell game that keeps opponents from honing in on his star players on each side of the ball.
Although it is hard to win consistently with a “smoke and mirrors” approach, the Falcons have enough firepower to keep games competitive when they are able to play on their own terms. With Marcus Mariota adding some leadership and play-making to an offense that features an elite playmaker in Kyle Pitts, the Falcons might be able to score enough points to mask some of their defensive deficiencies in 2022.
Strength: Although games are more impacted by the performances of top players than scheme tricks, the Falcons have an A-plus play designer at the controls diagramming plays for blue-chip talents like Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson. As a chalkboard wizard with a knack for creating big-play opportunities for his best players, Smith’s creativity will test the minds of defensive coordinators attempting to put a vise grip on those two playmakers. If the Falcons can get another top receiver on the perimeter — they certainly hope first-round pick Drake London is that guy — you could see the Dirty Birds round into a formidable foe by the end of the season.
Weakness: The Falcons have struggled on the defensive side of the ball for years. Defensive coordinator Dean Peas has proclaimed that the struggles will end this season, but it is hard to envision the defense joining the ranks of the elite without a collection of blue-chip players in the lineup. While AJ Terrell and Grady Jarrett are All-Pro-caliber players, the rest of the lineup lacks the firepower to disrupt and dismantle opposing offenses. Perhaps a few difference-makers will emerge throughout the season, but the current lineup looks like it can’t compete with the heavyweights in the conference.
Breakout Player: Former quarterback-turned-tight end Felipe Franks could become a key contributor in the passing game as a versatile playmaker in the team’s heavy formations. The second-year pro has impressed the coaching staff with his improving blocking skills and sticky hands. The Falcons’ new Swiss Army knife could blossom into a sneaky big-play weapon down the road.
Win-Loss Prediction: 5-12
Bucky Brooks is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He regularly appears on “Speak For Yourself” and also breaks down the game for NFL Network and as a cohost of the “Moving the Sticks” podcast. Follow him on Twitter @BuckyBrooks.
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