NFL odds: Best bets for which team ends playoff drought

Eight NFL teams have active postseason droughts of four seasons or longer.

Which of those teams – the Jets, Broncos, Lions, Dolphins, Giants, Falcons, Panthers and Jaguars – is most likely to end the playoff skid this season?

Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on these teams’ chances of making the playoffs (all NFL odds via FOX Bet).

The New York Jets have the longest active playoff drought (11 seasons), last making the postseason in 2010.

The Denver Broncos are next with a six-season skid.

Teams with playoff droughts of five seasons are the Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins and New York Giants.

Squads with playoff absences of four seasons are the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers add Jacksonville Jaguars.

ODDS TO MAKE THE POSTSEASON (at FOX Bet) *

BRONCOS (7-10 in 2021, fourth in AFC West)

Yes: -138 (bet $10 to win $17.25 total)
No: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)

Win Super Bowl: +1900 (bet $10 to win $200 total)

DOLPHINS (9-8, third in AFC East)

Yes: +135 (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
No: -182 (bet $10 to win $15.49 total)

Win Super Bowl: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)

FALCONS (7-10, third in NFC South)

Yes: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
No: -1250 (bet $10 to win $10.80 total)

Win Super Bowl: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)

GIANTS (4-13, fourth in NFC East)

Yes: +220 (bet $10 to win $32 total)
No: -303 (bet $10 to win $13.30 total)

Win Super Bowl: +9000 (bet $10 to win $910 total)

JAGUARS (3-14, fourth in AFC South)

Yes: +400 (bet $10 to win $50 total)
No: -667 (bet $10 to win $11.50 total)

Win Super Bowl: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)

JETS (4-13, fourth in AFC East)

Yes: +5500 (bet $10 to win $65 total)
No: -1000 (bet $10 to win $11 total)

Win Super Bowl: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)

LIONS (3-13-1, fourth in NFC North)

Yes: +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)
No: -667 (bet $10 to win $11.50 total)

Win Super Bowl: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)

PANTHERS (5-12, fourth in NFC South)

Yes: +425 (bet $10 to win $52.50 total)
No: -667 (bet $10 to win $11.50 total)

Win Super Bowl: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total)

* = as of 8/29/2022

To figure out which teams have the best shot at ending their playoff futility, we assembled the FOX Sports betting version of the Algonquin Round Table.

FOX Sports betting analysts Jason McIntyre, Sam Panayotovich (aka Sammy P), Geoff Schwartz and FOX Sports NFL writer Eric Williams give their thoughts and pick a woebegone team to make the playoffs this season.

Surprisingly (then again, maybe not), the four each picked a different franchise. Welcome to the NFL world of parity!

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Jason McIntyre: Denver Broncos

McIntyre is taking a big swing for the fences, saying Denver is not only a candidate to go from worst to first in the AFC West Division but could also advance to Super Bowl LVII. 

Why? McIntyre points out the Broncos lost seven games against playoff teams last season. Denver also traded with the Seahawks for Russell Wilson, a nine-time Pro Bow quarterback who has played in two Super Bowls, winning one.

“Russell Wilson is an enormous upgrade from game manager Teddy Bridgewater (now with Miami), and the trickle-down effect will be massive,” McIntyre said. “The defense, which might be the second-best in the AFC West after the Chargers, only finished 20th in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) but added pass rusher Randy Gregory and run-stopper D.J. Jones.

“What has crippled the Broncos the last two years is injuries – they ranked seventh-worst in injury luck last year and fifth-worst in 2020. Toss in the fact they went 1-5 in one-score games, and you’ve got a team ripe for a potential big turnaround.

“The December schedule is brutal, but I have the Broncos finishing 11-6.”

PICK: Broncos (-138 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $17.25 total) to make postseason

PICK: Broncos (+130 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $23 total) to win more than 10.5 games

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Sam Panayotovich: Detroit Lions

Bettors have caught a case of Lions fever, making Detroit a popular long-shot bet to win the Super Bowl.

Panayotovich won’t quite go that far, but he wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions climb the NFC North standings.

“The Lions are better than you think,” Sammy P said. “Management has done a bang-up job building from the trenches out, and Pro Football Focus believes Detroit’s offensive line has the potential to be one of the best in the league. 

“Assuming quarterback Jared Goff gets enough time to throw, look out for Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark, T.J. Hockenson and rookie Jameson Williams making plays in space. Star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson bolsters a decent pass rush, and if the Packers or Vikings underachieve, an avenue could open up for Detroit to sneak into the Wild Card Game.”

PICK: Lions (+350 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $45 total) to make postseason

Geoff Schwartz: Carolina Panthers

Baker Mayfield had issues in Cleveland, but Schwartz said the No. 1 pick in 2018 gives Carolina an upgrade at the most important position in the sport.

“A healthy and motivated Baker Mayfield is the best quarterback the Panthers have had under Matt Rhule,” Schwartz said. “There’s talent on the roster, a weak NFC South outside of Tampa Bay, and there are not many better options for the seventh seed in the NFC.” 

Schwartz also likes Mayfield to win Comeback Player of the Year.

PICK: Panthers (+425 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $52.50 total) to make postseason

Eric Williams: Jacksonville Jaguars

Williams said he expects Jacksonville to improve as quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 pick in 2021, continues to grow into the job.

“The Jaguars made major upgrades on offense and defense during the offseason,” Williams stated. “Trevor Lawrence is talented, and they are led by a coach who won a Super Bowl in Doug Pederson. And they play in AFC South, the weakest division in the AFC.”

PICK: Jaguars (+400 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $50 total) to make postseason

Do you like any of the long-shot picks by our NFL experts? If so, head over to FOX Bet for all your NFL wagers.

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