NFL odds: Over/under win total bets for every team in the AFC South

Nothing says football is back like the official release of next season’s schedule! 

And now that we know the dates of all the NFL regular season matchups for 2022, FOX Bet has released its win totals for every team. Folks, not only do we have ourselves a complete schedule to get excited about, but at FOX Bet, you can now bet on the win totals, too.

Our expert betting analysts — Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich and Jason McIntyre — analyzed this year’s slate and weighed in on how gamblers should wager on the win totals for each team in every division!

Let’s look at the AFC South.

Last season, the Titans were the only team in the division to make the playoffs. But after clinching the AFC South and a first-round bye, Tennessee with Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry didn’t have enough to get past the Bengals in the divisional round. With the next-best record were the Colts — a team that recently traded for quarterback Matt Ryan with the hopes of scratching the postseason in 2022. Then at the bottom of the division are the Texans and the Jaguars, two squads whose QB and head coach woes from last year could very well make it difficult for them to breach .500 next season.

Here are our experts’ picks, with all odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

9.5 wins for Tennessee Titans at FOX Bet

Geoff’s Pick — Under: -118 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $18.47 total)

The under wager on the Titans’ win total is going to be trendy this season after their failure in the playoffs last season as the 1-seed. People will point to a few reasons to doubt the Titans: the declining play of Ryan Tannehill as the Titans’ offensive passing DVOA dropped from fourth in 2020 to 21st in 2021, the loss of wide receiver A.J. Brown and an uncertain offensive line. Those are all valid concerns. But even taking one look at their results from last season should have you leaning under here. 

The Titans were 6-1 in the regular season in games decided by three points or fewer, a trend that will not continue this season. If that number drops back to three or four, then the Titans are a nine-win team. 

Last season, Tennessee beat three division winners in Kansas City, Buffalo and the Los Angeles Rams and a playoff team in San Francisco. However, the AFC South will be tougher this season with QB Matt Ryan in Indianapolis and a competent coaching staff in Jacksonville. 

Lastly, if the Titans start slow, they could turn to newly-drafted quarterback Malik Willis to finish the season under center which would contribute to going under 9.5 wins.

9.5 wins for Indianapolis Colts at FOX Bet

Sammy P’s Pick — Over: -125 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $18 total)  

The Indianapolis Colts finished 9-8 last season with forever-average quarterback Carson Wentz starting all 17 games. Wentz needed to rally his teammates just one time in the final two weeks against either Las Vegas or Jacksonville, but the Colts slipped on a banana peel with a highly-probable postseason bid on the line.

Wentz is Washington’s problem now and Indy will roll into 2022 with Matt Ryan, who completed 67% of his passes on a horrendous Falcons team with a bunch of milk-carton guys playing wide receiver. Remember, Julio Jones was traded to Tennessee last summer. Meanwhile, Indianapolis has a playoff-ready roster and the Colts’ front office was more than happy to acquire Ryan and pair his skills with a solid offensive line and running back Jonathan Taylor who led the league in rushing. 

The biggest issue for Indianapolis over the last handful of years? That annual September swoon. The Colts are 5-9 in the first month under Frank Reich — including 0-3 last season — so something’s got to give there.

But Taylor’s presence should open up tons of throwing opportunities for the Colts in play-action and Ryan’s ability to complete a 20-yard pass down the field will make the offensive hum that much more. Additions of Yannick Ngakoue and Stephon Gilmore on D will help, too.

4.5 wins for Houston Texans at FOX Bet

Sammy P’s Pick — Under: -110 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)

How low are you willing to go on the Houston Texans?

The Deshaun Watson era is over, Davis Mills is likely the starting quarterback and head coach Lovie Smith hasn’t posted a winning record at any level since 2012 when his Chicago Bears finished 10-6.

FOX Bet is currently dealing the Texans’ win total at over/under 4.5, and honestly, there aren’t too many football games in which they’ll be favored this season. They were favored once last year per Team Rankings and let’s be honest, Indianapolis and Jacksonville both improved this past offseason.

So where do the wins come?

Even if you pencil the Texans in for two unexpected wins — which is a very generous number for a bad team — there aren’t any “surefire” victories on the schedule. Houston will host Indianapolis, Los Angeles (A), Tennessee, Philadelphia, Washington, Cleveland, Kansas City and Jacksonville. And then they get to play nine games on the highway.

There’s no guarantee they’ll be favored at all, especially considering the Commanders and Jaguars could be very easily exceeding expectations by the time those games roll around in late November and in early January. 

I applaud the Texans for adding four or five opening week starters in the 2022 NFL Draft, but this is a football organization in transition, and their situation probably gets worse before it gets better. There just aren’t many avenues to instant success. 

6.5 wins for Jacksonville Jaguars at FOX Bet

Jason’s Pick — Over: +105 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)

The Jaguars were my worst call last season because I thought the Urban Meyer-Trevor Lawrence union would be a dangerous team in the AFC South. 

It was not, as Meyer was gone before Christmas. 

The Jags tried to re-tool in the offseason by bringing in new coach Doug Pederson and offensive weapons Evan Engram and Christian Kirk. They also get back 2021 first-round pick Travis Etienne who missed all of last season. Pederson and those weapons should help push this team in the right direction this upcoming year. Last season, Jacksonville’s offense ranked 27th in offensive efficiency, and next season, it will undoubtedly be improved. 

The division isn’t strong, however, I really question them taking Travon Walker first overall. He’s the first player to go No. 1 overall who wasn’t an All-American or first-team All-Conference player in nearly 50 years. That was a big risk, so he better hit.

The schedule is a mixed bag. For example, they travel to London to face Russell Wilson and then have to face the Raiders when they return without a bye. 

But in Trevor Lawrence I trust. Give me the over.

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