NFL odds Week 1: Home underdogs chances of winning ranked from worst to best

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The NFL is back, baby! 

Week 1 brings plenty of gambling opportunities, but I wanted to lock in on one particular topic that stood out to me when looking at this weekend’s slate. While breaking down the lines, the biggest thing that popped out was that there were 10 home teams listed as underdogs. In comparison, last year featured only seven home dogs in Week 1, and there have only been nine other instances of seven or more home underdogs in Week 1 over the last 45 yrs (since 1977), per FOX Sports Research.

The defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams were one of those cases against the Buffalo Bills, but that game resulted in an L for the first home dog. Can any of the remaining home underdogs bark? 

Let’s have some fun and break down the nine remaining cases in order of what I think their chances are to win. With odds courtesy of FOX Bet, of course.

9. Seattle Seahawks +220 moneyline at FOX Bet

Russell Wilson returning to Seattle is one of the best storylines of Week 1, and it won’t end well for the Seahawks (+6.5), who have arguably the worst roster in the NFC. They also have one of the lowest win totals in the NFL. Odds of Geno Smith out dueling Wilson? No shot.

8. New York Jets +225 moneyline at FOX Bet

John Harbaugh has been tremendous in season openers (10-4 ATS), and the Jets (+6.5) have questions at QB (Joe Flacco), LT (Duane Brown), and pretty much everyone on the rebuilt defense. Don’t see it, keep it moving.

7. Chicago Bears +240 moneyline at FOX Bet

Perhaps the worst offensive line in the NFL has to start the season against a nasty defensive front led by Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead. No pressure, Trey Lance. Side note, George Kittle is questionable for this game, so I could see a path for Chicago (+7) if Kittle is out and Chicago QB Justin Fields goes supernova.

6. Detroit Lions +160 moneyline at FOX Bet

The plucky Lions are beloved by gamblers after the way they ended last season, but this is not a good matchup for Detroit (+4.5) — especially if two starting offensive linemen cannot go. The Eagles won last year’s matchup 44-6.

5. Arizona Cardinals +205 moneyline at FOX Bet

The Cardinals (+6) might be higher on this list if they weren’t down WR1 (DeAndre Hopkins, suspended), WR2 (Christian Kirk, in Jacksonville) and possibly WR3 (Rondale Moore, hamstring). Toss in Zach Ertz being questionable, and you have to wonder if Arizona can keep up with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.

4. Dallas Cowboys +110 moneyline at FOX Bet

The problem with the Cowboys (+2.5) is that injuries have decimated the offensive line, and the receiving group is extremely thin and inexperienced after CeeDee Lamb. Todd Bowles’ aggressive defense will be on Dak Prescott early and often. Can America’s Team step up to the challenge?

3. Atlanta Falcons +160 moneyline at FOX Bet

The Falcons (+5.5) have one of the best pairs of CBs in the NFC in AJ Terrell and Casey Hayward, which may lead to a conservative game plan from new head coach Dennis Allen. You just never know what you will get from QB Jameis Winston. If he throws a couple of picks, the door will be open for the Falcons late.

2. Minnesota Vikings -105 moneyline at FOX Bet

I love the Vikings this season, but this is a tough spot. A first-time head coach facing a Green Bay defense that might be one of the best in the league. And said coach, Kevin O’Connell, was in L.A. with the Rams when they struggled twice against this formidable defense. But, the Vikings (+1) have one of the best offenses and rosters in the league, so this game should come down to the wire.

1. Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans +260 moneyline at FOX Bet

The Texans have taken sharp money against the spread all week, pushing this down from +8 to +7. Strange, especially when you consider the Colts won last year’s meetings by a combined 62-3. But, Indy’s coach Frank Reich has struggled in season openers, going 0-4. And, the Colts’ QB rotation continues, as they are now on their fifth quarterback in five seasons. Hey, crazier things have happened.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.