NFL odds Week 1: How to bet Packers-Vikings, pick
We get an epic NFC North matchup to open the 2022 NFL Season!
The Green Bay Packers face off against their division rivals, the Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX in Minneapolis at U.S. Bank Stadium.
The Green Bay Packers again have Super Bowl dreams on their mind, despite losing All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders in the offseason. However, the Pack still has four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers, and he still has plenty of guys to throw to, including Sammy Watkins, Allen Lazard and rookie Christian Watson.
The Vikings are coming off an 8-9 season but look to be the only team in the division with a chance to dethrone Green Bay. They’ll need more consistency on the defensive front, but with wide receiver Justin Jefferson and running back Dalvin Cook to go along with Kirk Cousins, they will be fine offensively.
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Packers-Vikings game, from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):
RELATED: Latest Super Bowl odds
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
Point spread: Packers -1.5 (Packers favored to win by more than 1.5 points, otherwise Vikings cover)
Moneyline: Packers -120 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $18.33 total); Vikings -105 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
Total scoring over/under: 46.5 points scored by both teams combined
The Packers are 5-4 against the spread (ATS) and 7-2 straight up (SU) on the road when facing NFC North opponents with Matt LaFleur as coach, with the under hitting in five of those games. Additionally, they are 7-8 ATS and 10-5 SU as road favorites in that same period, with the under hitting in nine of those games.
Vikings are 7-4 ATS and 4-7 SU as home underdogs since 2015, with the under hitting in six of those games. They are 13-8 ATS and 13-8 SU at home against NFC North opponents in that same period, with the under hitting in 13 of those games.
Aaron Rodgers is 31-32-1 ATS and 42-22 SU as a starter when a road favorite in his career.
Kirk Cousins is 11-9 ATS and 9-11 SU as a starter when a home underdog in his career.
Insights from Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:
We know the Packers have been the NFC North’s top cheese for years, as they have won the division four out of the last six seasons, including the last three.
But did you know that since 2017, the Vikings have a winning record against the Packers?
That’s right, Minnesota is 5-4-1 (56%) since 2017 vs. Green Bay.
And the Vikings are 4-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) when facing the Packers in Minnesota since 2016.
In the only game against the Packers last season in which Kirk Cousins played, the Vikings won a thriller, 34-31. The Minnesota quarterback was highly efficient, averaging +0.60 EPA/att and 9.7 YPA with 50% success.
In fact, over the past two years, there is no defense which Cousins has been more efficient against than the Packers. In three starts, Cousins has posted:
+0.49 EPA/att, 57% success and 10.3 YPA. He’s completed 73% of his passes (54-for-74), with a whopping 52% of his completions gaining 10-plus yards.
That production came from offenses designed by Gary Kubiak and Klint Kubiak. Now, he’s in an offense designed by Kevin O’Connell, the former offensive coordinator of the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams. It’s a more modern offense that will pass the ball frequently. While it will be difficult to see more success than Cousins enjoyed against the Packers over the past two seasons, they should be more prepared to handle Green Bay’s defensive improvements.
I’m also eager to see how this new offense, which is likely to utilize substantially higher rates of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end), will perform on the ground.
Minnesota used 11 personnel on 74.8% of its snaps in the preseason after a 42.1% rate in 2021.
Out of 11 personnel last year, Dalvin Cook ranked No. 1 in EPA/rush, and in his career, he ranks fourth in EPA/rush and seventh in YPC (5.4).
What is fascinating with this matchup is last year’s Packers’ run defense was one of the worst in the NFL. And while the Pack have made efforts to improve, they were especially bad against 11 personnel. Green Bay allowed 5.1 YPC and +0.02 EPA/rush to runs from 11 personnel. And the Packers allowed a massive 2.4 yards before contact to runs from 11 personnel. That ranked dead last in the NFL.
Last season, of 35 running back rushes against the Packers, the Vikings used 11 personnel on just 37%. If this rate increases closer to 75%, the Vikings’ run game may find even more success.
On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers has been outstanding the past two years against Mike Zimmer’s defense, throwing 13 touchdowns and no interceptions in those games.
But this will be Rodgers’ first season without Davante Adams. Adams torched Zimmer’s defense for years, and his 79% catch rate against the Vikings is his highest against any team he’s played more than twice over the past three years. Adams had eight touchdowns against Zimmer’s defense over his previous four games. In all other games, Adams had 23 touchdowns in 29 games. Minnesota doesn’t need to worry about Adams in 2022 as he’s no longer in Green Bay.
Minnesota’s defense may benefit from playing a Green Bay offense that is trying to fill that void. On Monday, Matt LaFleur was noncommittal on Allen Lazard’s status for the game, which is worth noting considering Lazard missed several practices last week for “undisclosed reasons.” The wide out missed practice on Wednesday as well. While Lazard and Rodgers have a ton of chemistry from prior seasons, it is concerning that the de facto No. 1 WR for the Packers hasn’t been practicing the week leading into Week 1, and his status is still TBD.
The Lazard injury would leave Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb as the team’s primary starters. It’s been years since Watkins has been a reliable NFL target, and Cobb’s best days are behind him. The Packers hope to get some explosion from rookie Romeo Doubs. And at tight end, we know that Robert Tonyan has been a very productive threat for Rodgers in the past, but he just came off the physically unable to perform (PUP) list on Aug. 14 and is recovering from an ACL injury. He may not be at 100% in this matchup.
Lastly, we have the home-field advantage factor.
In 2020, there were no crowds and no home-field advantage, and particularly as the betting market was slow to adjust, the Vikings fared poorly ATS at home.
In 2021, the Vikings played more road games than home games.
But in 2022, the Vikings will play more home games than road games and benefit from their crowd. Ignoring the crowd-less 2020 season, the Vikings are 36-18-4 (67%) ATS at home since 2014, the best record in the NFL.
For these reasons, the Vikings make a good teaser leg candidate, moving the +1.5 point spread by 6 points and sending it just north of 7 to +7.5.
Pick by betting analyst Sam Panayotovich:
I’ve waxed poetic enough about how much I love Minnesota this year.
First, the defensive front is as strong as it’s been since the Vikings reached the NFC Championship five years ago. But most importantly, the offense is about to reach new levels with head coach Kevin O’Connell in charge.
Expect much more pace and space for Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook throughout the season and a big year for Kirk Cousins.
Green Bay is a fatter-tail team that’ll peak later in the season when the playoffs get closer but give me Minnesota in the opener.
PICK: Vikings (+2 at FOX Bet at time of pick) to lose by fewer than 2 points (or win outright)
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