NFL odds Week 12: Historical look at Thanksgiving games, other best trends

Turkey day is upon us! For the fun holiday, we wanted to give you all the insights we could on how to bet on the NFL Thanksgiving games profitably. 

Last week’s trends piece highlighted a few winners we foresaw on top of a few shockers. First, trends correctly predicted the New England Patriots continuing their dominance against the New York Jets. We also were correct about the Buffalo Bills bouncing back and covering the 7.5-point spread against the Cleveland Browns. Additionally, we pointed out the Tennessee Titans becoming the seventh team in the last decade to cover in eight straight games. On the flip side, the New York Giants lost as home favorites against the Detroit Lions, and Patrick Mahomes failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite against the Los Angeles Chargers despite winning the game. 

As always, we did a deep dive into historical regular-season data to identify the best trends. We also looked at team- and player-specific trends, which should help inform you on who to bet on when it comes to these huge Thanksgiving games.

Favorites dominate on Thanksgiving Day

Turkey day has been extremely kind to favorites no matter what time frame you look at. Since 2010, favorites have gone 20-15 against the spread (ATS) (57.1%) and 28-7 straight up (SU) (80%) in Thanksgiving games. Going back five years before that, they dominate at an even higher rate – going 33-16 ATS (67.3%) and 41-8 SU (83.7%). And finally, if we go back even further to the 2000 season, favorites have gone a whopping 38-21 ATS (64.4%) and 48-11 SU (81.4%).

It’s also worth noting that road favorites have gone 21-9 ATS (70%) and 27-3 SU (90%) on Thanksgiving Day since 2000. The Bills are the only road favorite playing on Thanksgiving this year, more on that below.

Bills should cover against Lions

All of our historical data points towards Sean McDermott’s squad covering for a second straight week as the Bills take on the Lions at 12:30 p.m. ET. FOX Bet currently has the Bills as 9.5-point favorites at Ford Field. 

Below are some quick hitters that point towards betting on Buffalo:

• Bills are 13-6-2 ATS (68.4%) and 18-3 SU (85.7%) as seven-plus-point favorites under Sean McDermott
• Since 2000, favorites of seven to 11 points are 14-5 ATS (73.7%) and 16-3 SU (84.2%) in Thanksgiving games
• Since 2000, the Lions are 10-12 ATS (45.5%) and 6-16 SU (27.3%) in Thanksgiving Day games
• Lions have lost 15 straight games when an underdog on Thanksgiving
• Home underdogs are 9-21 ATS (30%) and 3-27 SU (10%) in Thanksgiving Day games since 2000

Cowboys to keep rolling vs. Giants

Considering how strong both teams have looked this year, this was a tough matchup to call, but after the 40-3 thrashing that the Dallas Cowboys gave the then 8-1 Minnesota Vikings last week, we decided to follow the data and the hot team. Dallas has been a perennial participant in Thanksgiving games, dominating when a large favorite. FOX Bet currently has them as a 9.5-point favorite. 

The Cowboys are 7-3 ATS (70%) and 9-1 SU (90%) when a favorite of seven or more points on Thanksgiving, and 5-3 ATS (62.5%) and 7-1 SU (87.5%) in such games since 2000. Something else of note is how often Dallas has hit the Over in recent Thanksgiving games, doing so in eight of the last 12 instances (66.7%). 

Recent trends also show that the Cowboys have dominated the Giants, as America’s team has gone 12-6-1 ATS (66.7%) and 15-4 SU (78.9%) against New York since 2013. The Over also hit in 63.1% of those games.

It’s not just in Thanksgiving games where Dallas dominates as a large favorite, as they’re a whopping 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) and 17-5 SU (77.3%) when favorites of six to 12 points since 2018. Furthermore, Dak Prescott thrives in these situations, going 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) and 25-5 SU (83.3%) when favored between six and 12. As a favorite at AT&T Stadium, Prescott is 20-16-1 ATS (55.6%) and 26-11 SU (70.3%).  

Bet on the favorite or Belichick?

The Vikings host the Patriots as 2.5-point favorites at 8:20 p.m. ET in the final Thanksgiving game of the day. As mentioned earlier, Minnesota is coming off a huge loss against the Cowboys, earning them their second loss of the season. Kevin O’Connell’s squad is now 8-2 SU on the year, compared to the Pats, who are 6-4 SU.

Looking back to the 2000 season, teams that enter Thanksgiving games with an 80% win percentage or better are 13-3 ATS (81.3%) and 15-1 SU (93.8%). In that same span, teams that enter turkey day games with exactly an 8-2 record are a perfect 5-0 ATS and SU, with the Over hitting in four of those games (80%). 

However, a couple of trends point in the Patriots’ direction as well. Under the leadership of coach Bill Belichick, New England is an astounding 10-6-2 ATS (62.5%) and 14-4 SU (77.8%) in games played on Thursdays. Belichick is also 3-1 ATS and SU (75%) when playing on Thanksgiving specifically, with his only loss coming in 2000.

So are you ready to place some NFL Thanksgiving bets? Head over to FOX Bet now for all your wagers! 

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