NFL odds Week 4: Fly the Jets, steer the Broncos, other best bets

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Well, we sure learned a lot about this season last weekend. For starters, the Dolphins are legitimate, while the Raiders are in trouble. Jalen Hurts is proving the haters wrong and showing he can play in this league, and Lamar Jackson has accounted for more touchdowns than any single NFL team.

Now that we are closing in on the first month of the season, we have a good sample set to analyze. Let’s jump into my best bets for Week 4, with all odds via FOX Bet.

Chargers @ Texans (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

The line has been dropping all week, mostly due to massive injuries for the Chargers.

It’s much more than Justin Herbert. He’s lost his left tackle for the season, and he hasn’t had his star receiver in two weeks. Joey Bosa will miss time, and we’ll have to see about other starters like J.C. Jackson and even linebacker Kenneth Murray.

The Chargers are 1-2 but have an elite roster, and the pressure will be on Brandon Staley to win this game. He may have to start backup quarterback Chase Daniel if Herbert’s ribs are still a problem.

Last December in Houston, the Chargers lost 41-29 after giving up 24 points in the fourth quarter — ultimately costing them a playoff spot. If you didn’t bet this early in the week, you missed the best number (+6.5). If the LAC injury report is bad, there’s still some value at +4.5.

And here’s one more note to keep in mind: At home, Davis Mills has 14 touchdowns and 1 interception. On the road? He has five touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Sheesh.

PICK: Texans (+4.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points (or win outright)

Jaguars @ Eagles (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

It’s back-to-back revenge weeks for the Eagles, who buried Carson Wentz last week (nine sacks) and now host their former coach Doug Pederson.

At 3-0, Philadelphia is being crowned as the best team in the NFC, but two of their wins are against the frisky Lions and very bad Commanders.

This isn’t a great travel spot for Jacksonville, which had to travel across the country to L.A., then return to Jacksonville, then fly north to Philly.

Look for the Eagles to find success in the slot and take advantage of struggling cornerback Darious Williams (graded out as 98th out of 103 CBs, per PFF).

The look-ahead line was Eagles -7, and early Jags money brought the line down to 6.5. The forecast calls for rain in Philly all weekend, which might be why the total has decreased from 48 to 47. If I were betting this game, I’d look at the under 47.

PICK: Under 47 points scored combined by both teams at FOX Bet

Cardinals, Chargers, Jets are all 1-2, time to panic? | THE CARTON SHOW

Several teams that we thought would have more promising beginnings to their season are looking at a 1-2 start.

Jets @ Steelers (1 p.m.ET Sunday, CBS)

Zach Wilson is slated to make his season debut for the Jets, and he’s lucky he doesn’t have to face T.J. Watt. Which is a good thing since the Jets are going to be on their fourth string left tackle.

The Steelers are coming off extra rest, but nothing can help their leaky run defense (171 yards permitted to Cleveland).

The Jets have faced Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Jacoby Brissett, and now they’ll face their weakest QB this season. The line has come down from 3.5 to 3, and you have to wonder if Mitch Trubisky should be favored by a field goal over anyone. The Jets’ biggest weakness on defense is at safety; Trubisky’s longest pass this season is 36 yards. Everything is at the line of scrimmage or behind.

New York steals one on the road, and maybe we even see Kenny Pickett at QB for Pittsburgh.

PICK: Jets (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Broncos @ Raiders (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

The Raiders stink, Josh McDaniels has already been called into a glass office by the team’s owner, and the Derek Carr–Davante Adams connection has been sputtering since a strong opener.

Denver’s defense has given up just 36 points in three games. So why has there been a flood of Raiders money all week, pushing this from -1.5 to -3?

The Raiders have won four straight against Denver, but none of those were with Josh McDaniels or against Russell Wilson.

Beware of betting on this ghastly Raiders’ secondary and putrid offensive line. Vegas’ offensive line will get steamrolled by Randy Gregory and Bradley Chubb, and Denver’s offense finally seems primed for a breakout game against a defense that let Ryan Tannehill average 9.1 yards per attempt last week.

I can see the Raiders emptying the tank here with a game in K.C. on deck and the possibility of an 0-5 start. The market’s moving against me, but I’ll side with the Broncos in this spot.

PICK: Denver Broncos (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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