NFL odds Week 4: How to bet Rams-49ers
The San Francisco 49ers hope to move into a tie for first place in the NFC West Division by beating the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football.
The Rams (2-1) sit atop the division and the 49ers are 1-2 heading into Week 4 of the NFL season. The 49ers lead the all-time series 75-68-3 after having their six-game winning streak against the Rams stopped in the NFC Championship Game last season. The teams first met in 1950.
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Rams-49ers game, from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and insight from Warren Sharp (odds via FOX Bet):
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Rams @ 49ers (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN)
Point spread: 49ers -1.5 (49ers favored to win by more than 1.5 points, otherwise Rams cover)
Moneyline: 49ers -120 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $18.33 total); Rams -105 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
Total scoring over/under: 42.5 points scored by both teams combined
The Rams are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) and on the over in the over/under (O/U) in their past five games.
The Rams are 1-6 straight up (SU) in their past seven games against the 49ers.
The total in the over/under (O/U) has hit the under in seven of the Rams’ past nine road games against the 49ers.
The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their past five games against the Rams and overall in their past five home games.
The 49ers are 0-6 SU in their past six games played in Week 4.
The 49ers have hit the under in the O/U in their past six games.
FOX Sports NFL Writer Warren Sharp:
When the 49ers meet the Rams, it will be a battle for first place in the NFC West, much like the battle for first place in the NFC Conference in last year’s playoffs.
These divisional foes have consistently battled to close, one-score games, which almost always have been 49ers wins and go under the total.
Since 2019, they’ve met seven times. The 49ers are 6-1 SU, ATS, and the Under is 5-2.
The simple fact is Kyle Shanahan’s offensive stylings work exceptionally well against the Rams defense.
San Francisco will need a huge effort out of their defense to limit the Rams offense because 49ers OT Trent Williams isn’t healthy, and that will likely be a problem against this Rams pass rush.
And I am concerned about whether the Rams offense will do enough here when they have the ball. After putting up just 10 points on the Bills defense in Week 1, the Rams have played two bottom-5 defenses in the Falconsand Cardinals.
Now they must face the 49ers defense, which limited Matthew Stafford to 6.9 YPA and a 5:4 TD:INT ratio in three games in 2021. Stafford took nine sacks and was hit 22 times on 129 dropbacks.
From a game average perspective last year:
Stafford vs. the 49ers:
42% success, 6.9 YPA, 11% sack/INT rate, 7% sack rate, 30% pressure rate
Stafford vs. anyone else:
50% success, 8.1 YPA, 6% sack/INT rate, 4% sack rate, 26% pressure rate
While this is a big step up in competition for Stafford compared to the two prior defenses he faced, it’s a big step up in competition for the 49ers, who have had the great fortune of playing the Bears, Seahawks and Broncos offenses.
That’s the fourth easiest schedule of opposing offenses so far this season.
We always say you can’t control who you play, but if you’re going to be playing a bad offense, you had better dominate. And that’s what this 49ers defense has done to start the season.
The 49ers are getting pressure at the No. 3 highest rate despite blitzing at a below-average rate.
San Francisco’s pass defense ranks No. 1 in success rate allowed on early downs and their run defense ranks No. 5 in success rate allowed on early downs.
As previously mentioned, the 49ers will be without LT Trent Williams, and while they did see the return of George Kittle last week, he wasn’t a difference maker through the air. And I wonder in this matchup if he isn’t used more as a blocker to help keep Jimmy G upright while Garoppolo targets Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
On the positive side for the 49ers offensive line, the Rams are getting pressure at the seventh lowest rate despite blitzing at the No. 8 highest rate.
But that has come against a very different type of quarterback.
The Rams have played Josh Allen, Marcus Mariota and Kyler Murray this season — all dual-threat QBs that are extremely mobile in the pocket. The opposite of those adjectives would describe Jimmy G., and if the Rams can collapse the pocket, they’ll disrupt this 49ers passing attack in a way they couldn’t against the highly mobile QBs they’ve faced.
They should be able to get pressure on Jimmy G and force him to dump the ball quickly or take a sack.
And the 49ers are the most sensitive to sacks of any team in the NFL.
Since 2021:
Zero sacks on drives?
A 28% punt rate, the No. 9 lowest of any team.
But at least one sack on a drive? A 60% punt rate, the No. 5 highest of any team.
This offense is simply not built to overcome sacks.
Lastly, you have another thing going for you in this game: the ref crew. Brad Allen, the ref for this game, leads a crew that is in the lower tier calling defensive pass interference, defensive holding and has not yet called any illegal contact. But they do lead the NFL in false start penalties. And his crews are 58% to the Under, including 66% in divisional games.
There was more value on this when it was 46 or 47 points earlier this week when I bet it Under, and although I still lean to the Under, there isn’t enough value at 42 points (but if it gets to 43, look Under).
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