NFL odds Week 5: Bettors and sharps win on Dallas Cowboys; weekend recap

By Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Gambling Writer

During the season’s first three weeks, bookmakers beat the bettors in the NFL odds market. In Week 4, with the public/recreational bettors finally nabbing some good results, sportsbooks had their first losing week of the season.

When it comes to the NFL Week 5 odds market, it had a little something for everybody, as both the oddsmakers and bettors found something with which to be satisfied.

The surprising New York Giants gave bookmakers something to swoon about early Sunday. And the Dallas Cowboys delivered for bettors later in the day. 

Let’s recap the weekend at the books.

Moneyline Parlay Manglers

With a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff – an unholy 6:30 a.m. PT start – the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers didn’t really have everybody’s attention. That’s how it is for these London games.

But by the game’s end, it’s fair to say the Giants got the attention of all those who had moneyline parlays leading off with big favorite Green Bay – which was a lot of people.

Sure, those bettors figured perhaps the Packers might not cover the 9.5-point spread, but just as confident, Green Bay would at least win the game, getting those moneyline parlays off to a good start.

Then New York went and posted a 27-22 outright win. With only one game in the books, many bettors were already tearing up tickets.

“That started us off on the right foot, yeah,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said.

BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott was succinct when asked if the Giants’ upset killed a lot of moneyline parlays.

“Yes it did,” he said. “Green Bay is always popular. The early games were favorable, and the London game and the Texans were the two best.”

Houston was another upset winner, going to Jacksonville as a 7-point underdog and grinding out a 13-6 win.

Better Late Than Never

Although there were only three games in the 4:05 p.m./4:25 p.m. ET slot, that’s where things turned more in favor of the bettors. And in the case of the Cowboys-Rams game, it was Pros and Joes alike.

“Everybody’s on Dallas. Sharp and public play on the Cowboys,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said pregame.

After opening as 6.5-point road underdogs at The SuperBook, Dallas took sharp money at +6.5, +6 and +5.5, and the line ultimately shortened to +4.5. The Cowboys closed as 5.5-point ‘dogs and nabbed a 22-10 victory over the defending Super Bowl champs.

Between that result and the way that the Eagles-Cardinals and 49ers-Panthers games played out, The SuperBook gave a little back to the customers Sunday.

“We were a very small loser today in the NFL,” SuperBook senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said. “The Eagles covering in the first half and Cardinals covering the full game was a double-whammy for us. San Fran covering both the first half and full game was also a negative result for us.”

Philadelphia was a 3-point favorite in the first half at Arizona and led 14-10 at halftime. But the Eagles were 5.5-point favorites on the full-game spread and hung on for a 20-17 win. San Francisco was a 3.5-point first-half chalk at Carolina and led 17-3 at the break, then went on to win 37-15 as a 6-point favorite.

WynnBet senior trader Chris Youn echoed Degnon’s sentiments of a back-and-forth day behind the counter.

“[Early Sunday] was positive, with the Jets, Texans and Chargers getting there. The Cardinals and Cowboys covering in the late games was definitely not what we were looking for,” Youn said.

The Jets were 3-point home underdogs against Miami and put up 21 fourth-quarter points en route to a 40-17 victory. And the Chargers, 1.5-point favorites at Cleveland, hung on for a 30-28 victory.

Prophecy Realized

In Sunday’s final game, a prime-time showdown between the Bengals and Ravens, Youn proved prophetic in saying pregame:

“Going into Sunday Night Football, the Ravens winning, but the Bengals covering is the most ideal outcome for the book.”

And just guess how that went down? Baltimore closed as a 3-point favorite and needed a final-second field goal to land a 19-17 victory. Exactly what Youn called for.

Back To School

Thanks in no small part to Texas A&M’s near-upset of No. 1 Alabama, multiple sportsbooks reported a strong Saturday on the college football front. The Aggies were consensus 24.5-point road underdogs and almost nabbed the win, losing 24-20 when they couldn’t punch it in from the 2-yard line as time expired.

“It was a good day for the book. We were definitely rooting for A&M to cover the number,” The SuperBook’s Degnon said. “Texas and USC covering the spread were also good results for us.”

The Longhorns were 7.5-point neutral-site favorites against Oklahoma and steamrolled the Sooners 49-0. Washington State was something of a trendy underdog at The SuperBook, but Southern Cal won 30-14 as a 12-point favorite.

At WynnBet, an Alabama win/A&M cover was the best result in that contest on a Saturday, with a few results that broke against bettors and for the bookmakers.

“It was a solid day for us in college football, with big wins on Wisconsin and Mississippi State. But North Carolina State winning was a big loss for us,” Youn said.

Wisconsin, a 10-point favorite, punished Northwestern 42-7, while Mississippi State dumped Arkansas 40-17 to easily cover as a 9-point favorite.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

One customer of Caesars Sports had a fairly good day in the NFL – and a day that pretty much none of us could relate to. 

The bettor, wagering in Nevada, put $260,000 on Browns +3 (-130) vs. the Chargers; $110,000 on Titans -2 at the Commanders; and $110,000 on Buccaneers -9 vs. the Falcons.

Cleveland lost 30-28, but covered the 3-point spread by a point, a $200,000 win for the customer. Tennessee edged Washington 21-17 to win and cover, giving the customer a $100,000 win.

However, Tampa Bay fell short of covering in a 21-15 victory. So bid goodbye to that $110,000. Still, the bettor came out $190,000 ahead across those three major wagers.

Gotta be nice to have ostensibly half a million sitting around to wager on the wackiness that is the NFL.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He previously worked for Covers and is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.