NFL odds Week 5: How to bet Dolphins-Jets, pick

The Miami Dolphins (3-1) will be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) when they play at the New York Jets (2-2) in a key AFC East Division contest on Sunday.

Veteran Teddy Bridgewater will start for Miami.

The Dolphins lead the all-time series against the Jets 57-55-1. Miami has controlled the NFL rivalry – which started in 1966 – by winning the past four games and eight of the past nine.

Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Dolphins-Jets game, from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

Nick discusses the impact of Tua Tagovailoa’s Week 4 Injury across the NFL | What’s Wright?

Nick talks the impacts of Tua Tagovailoa’s Week 4 injury vs. the Cincinnati Bengals.

Dolphins @ Jets (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Point spread: Dolphins -3.5 (Dolphins favored to win by more than 3.5 points, otherwise Jets cover)
Moneyline: Dolphins -167 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15.99 total); Jets +130 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $23 total)
Total scoring over/under: 44.5 points scored by both teams combined

Miami Dolphins

MIA

New York Jets

NYJ

The Dolphins are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their past five games.

The Dolphins have hit the Under in the Over/Under (O/U) in 10 of their past 14 games.

The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their past eight games against the Jets.

The Jets have hit the Over in the O/U 12 times in their past 18 games.

The Jets are 1-7 straight up (SU) in their past eight home games.

The Jets have hit the Under in the O/U in their past five home games against the Dolphins.

Insights via Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

It will be a welcome relief for the Jets to be finished with the AFC North. The Jets played their first four games against the brutal AFC North, and the last two games came vs. the Bengals and Steelers, both top-10 defenses.

Now, the Jets get to face the No. 5 worst defense in the NFL, the Dolphins.

Miami is allowing the second most yards per pass play this year.

And they have been the worst pass defense in the NFL against play action.

When QBs use play action, they are recording +0.65 EPA/att, which is No. 1 most in the NFL and well above the NFL average of +0.12 EPA/att.

When teams aren’t using play action against the Dolphins, their passing attempts average +0.05 EPA/att.

So it has made a huge difference for QBs when facing the Dolphins.

In his game vs. the Steelers, Wilson had massive splits with and without play action on early down passes:

With play action:

+0.09 EPA/att, 50% success, 8.0 YPA

Without play action:

-0.23 EPA/att, 19% success, 5.1 YPA

If the Jets have improved Wilson’s usage of play action, and this isn’t the case of a small sample size, it will be massive for them this season.

That’s because Wilson was one of the NFL’s worst QBs with play-action passes last season.

Look at his splits in 2021:

With play action:

-0.31 EPA/att, 32% success, 5.8 YPA

Without play action:

-0.10 EPA/att, 37% success, 6.2 YPA

It could end up working out nicely for Wilson to use play action if the line can hold up long enough in protection.

For the Dolphins, I cannot imagine a team that needed 10 days off from a game more than the Dolphins.

From the game against the Bills in brutal heat to the short turnaround on the road and losing your starting QB to a bad concussion, followed by all of the media blitz and criticism, it’s been a rough patch. Which is why it was a perfect time to have extra days away from the facility to rest up and prepare for this game.

Say what you want about Teddy Bridgewater’s performance after being inserted for Tua last Thursday, but I think he’ll look MUCH better here against the Jets pass defense.

What’s been amazing about Tua and this Dolphins offense is they rank No. 2 in total efficiency including No. 2 in pass efficiency, despite playing the No. 1 toughest schedule of pass defenses.

They’ve played nothing but three top-10 pass defenses, and the No. 14 thrown in for good measure.

Now, they finally get to go against the No. 4 worst pass defense of the Jets. This will be the very worst pass defense the Dolphins will face all season.

I fully expect Teddy Bridgewater will look fine in this situation, given the players around him, his coaching and the amount of time he’s had to prep. He won’t outperform Tua, but against this defense, he should be satisfactory.

Keep in mind that last year, when quarterbacking Vic Fangio’s Broncos, Teddy Bridgewater faced this very same Jets defense and went 19-of-25 for 235 yards (9.4 YPA), +0.37 EPA/att and 48% success while putting up 26 points. That was a far less creative, talented and well-coached offense than what he is in now with the Dolphins.

I’d look at the Over in this game.

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