NFL odds Week 5: Why you should wager on the Rams, other best bets
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
A quarter of the NFL season is in the books, but who’s counting?
Now that we can separate the wheat from the chaff somewhat, among the NFL elite, my best wagers for this weekend are going to be sharper. Four games, in particular, caught my eye this week. From the impact of recent losses to plain ol’ bad matchups, I’ve zeroed in on these games for your betting pleasure.
So let’s dive into my best bets for Week 5 (with odds via FOX Bet)!
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Cowboys @ Rams (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
Even though Sean McVay is 3-1 against Dallas, the Rams are in a tough spot here. Los Angeles comes into this game off a quick turnaround following the MNF loss and a litany of problems in the trenches.
The Rams are last in the NFL in pressure rate at 9.4%, which is down considerably from 22.8% last year, and they couldn’t take advantage of the 49ers struggling OL. Will they change some things against Dallas to pressure Cooper Rush?
Offensively, the Rams had zero explosive plays against the 49ers, and they’re extremely limited, with Cooper Kupp getting a whopping 36.2% of Matt Stafford’s targets. The most difficult aspect of this handicap is the look-ahead line was -7; after the Rams got their butts kicked Monday, it’s down to -4.5.
As suspect as the Rams looked, remember to forget what you saw last week and trust the overreaction is too much. Bypass your recency bias, and lay the points.
PICK: Rams (-4.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4.5 points
Bears @ Vikings (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
The Vikings, who are a fortunate 3-1, return from London and host one of the worst offenses the NFL has seen in years.
Chicago is unable to move the ball because it cannot protect young QB Justin Fields, who has just 34 completions in four games; for comparison’s sake, Tom Brady completed 39 passes on SNF vs K.C.
The Bears are a monsoon and a bad Davis Mills fourth-quarter interception away from being 0-4.
You can understand why this was bet up from 6.5 at the open to the Vikings -7. Still, the Vikings defense struggled to contain backup QB Andy Dalton and a Saints team beset by injuries. Can Chicago take advantage of Minnesota’s shaky D, and keep up with the Vikings?
The Bears were swept by the Vikings last year (Fields started one game) and went 0-2 ATS in those outings. Look for more of the same this weekend.
Pick: Vikings (-7 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7 points
Falcons @ Buccaneers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
Last year when the Falcons stepped up in class, they lost eight games by double digits. Seven of those came against playoff teams.
Now they’ll face an angry defense that was shredded by Pat Mahomes in an island game. I chalked up that loss to the disruption caused in Tampa by a hurricane.
The Falcons have looked explosive through four games, except for three quarters against the Rams, when they were down 28-3. They were 10-point underdogs in that game and are now only 8.5 against a better defense?
In the four meetings since Brady joined Tampa, he’s 4-0 against Atlanta and 3-1 ATS. The Falcons have been a great story. The Marcus Mariota offense has been plucky and, more importantly, cashing for bettors (4-0 ATS, tops in the NFL.) But they will be missing a big piece this weekend in Cordarrelle Patterson.
Historically, this is a bad spot for Atlanta, as 4-0 ATS teams in Week 5 are 12-21 ATS over the last 20 years.
PICK: Buccaneers (-8.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 8.5 points
Texans @ Jaguars (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
Houston, somehow, has won eight straight against Jacksonville, including twice by 14+ last year. Trevor Lawrence completed under 57% of his passes in those two meetings last year, with three TDs and three INTs.
Jacksonville has been adjusted up more than any team in the league this season, but is this young team ready to lay a touchdown to anyone?
A thought about the 0-3-1 Texans — they’ve faced the easiest schedule in the NFL so far: Colts, Broncos, Bears and Chargers. All of whom rank 10th or worse according to the Football Outsiders DVOA metric through four weeks. Now, they’ll face a Jacksonville team that pummeled the Colts and Chargers, albeit while both were limping a bit.
But I just don’t think Jags should be laying this many points. Divisional game, you kind of have to take the points just on principle, right?
PICK: Texans (+7 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 7 points (or win outright)
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
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