StaTuesday: The numbers behind Badgers' furious end-of-season rally

The Wisconsin Badgers finished the 2019-20 college basketball season with a flurry.

Overcoming a tough start and some midseason adversity, including the transfer of second-leading scorer (at the time) Kobe King in late January, Wisconsin rattled off eight straight wins to close out the regular season with a 21-10 record, a share of the Big Ten title and the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.

Exactly how did the Badgers end up prospering, especially late in the season?

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Yes, playing at home in five of their final eight games helped. Wisconsin was 15-1 at the Kohl Center, with the lone defeat a one-point loss to Illinois on Jan. 8. But that means the Badgers did win three on the road (6-6 overall this season). Perhaps we shouldn’t mention UW is 0-3 at neutral sites.

However, on the bright side, Wisconsin hasn’t played a game at a neutral site since Thanksgiving. Micah Potter wasn’t cleared by the NCAA to play until a few weeks later, in late December.

Since Potter has been eligible and playing, the Badgers are 16-5. Without him, they were 5-5. Potter is averaging 10.1 points (second on team) on 52.8% shooting (best) and 6.2 rebounds (also best). He’s certainly been one factor to Wisconsin’s success.

Here’s some more tangible – i.e. statistical – reasons.

Wisconsin hasn’t had a turnover percentage worse than 16.3% since a Jan. 24 loss at Purdue. The Badgers are 2-6 this season when they have a turnover percentage of 18% or higher. Taking care of the basketball has been paramount in their success.

The Badgers are making 35.2% of their 3-point attempts this season, which isn’t bad (ranks 78th in the nation). This is a pretty tried and true formula for any team, but when Wisconsin shoots well, it wins. The Badgers are 14-2 when they have an effective field-goal percentage of 50% or higher.

Making 3s (not to mention limiting turnovers) can also mean a more efficient offense. Wisconsin is 15-1 this season when it has a point per possession of at least 1.000.

During their eight-game win streak, Wisconsin has had under an 18% turnover rate in all eight, had a 50%+ eFG% in six and a PPP of 1.000 or higher (in actuality, a 1.100 or higher) also in six. If you’re looking for a formula for why the Badgers are winning and/or how they can continue to keep winning in tournament season, there you go.

Here’s a breakdown of Wisconsin’s points per possession (PPP), opponent PPP, effective field-goal percentage (eFG%), offensive rebounding percentage (OR%), defensive rebounding percentage (DR%) and turnover percentage (TO%) in every game this season:

GAME	RESULT	PPP	OPP PPP	eFG%	OR%	DR%	TO%
St. Mary’s (in S.D.)	L, 65-63	0.929	0.946	47.1%	23.3%	61.7%	20.6%
Eastern Illinois	W, 65-52	1.001	0.782	40.9%	33.3%	73.2%	17.0%
McNeese State	W, 83-63	1.278	0.962	61.8%	26.9%	80.8%	13.9%
Marquette	W, 77-61	1.136	0.946	52.7%	27.3%	84.9%	17.7%
Green Bay	W, 88-70	1.250	0.974	63.7%	29.0%	90.9%	18.5%
Richmond	L, 62-52	0.823	0.959	41.0%	22.9%	87.5%	23.7%
New Mexico	L. 59-50	0.806	0.957	35.8%	31.6%	73.3%	22.6%
at NC State	L. 69-54	0.906	1.182	42.0%	36.8%	74.2%	15.1%
Indiana	W, 84-64	1.401	1.009	60.7%	30.8%	69.2%	6.7%
at Rutgers	L, 72-65	0.984	1.096	56.3%	10.3%	62.2%	21.2%
Milwaukee	W, 83-64	1.267	0.979	59.6%	25.0%	82.9%	13.8%
at Tennessee	W, 68-48	1.063	0.782	53.5%	18.2%	72.2%	14.1%
Rider	W, 65-37	0.969	0.543	55.4%	15.2%	82.6%	20.9%
at Ohio State	W, 61-57	0.999	0.942	42.9%	33.3%	73.3%	16.4%
Illinois	L, 71-70	1.145	1.134	47.2%	32.3%	73.3%	13.1%
at Penn State	W, 58-49	0.948	0.788	45.5%	25.0%	83.8%	14.7%
Maryland	W, 56-54	1.008	0.952	52.0%	13.8%	66.7%	12.6%
at Michigan State	L, 67-55	0.862	1.040	39.0%	22.5%	69.7%	14.1%
Nebraska	W, 82-68	1.214	0.991	60.3%	28.6%	78.9%	16.3%
at Purdue	L, 70-51	0.871	1.187	51.1%	7.1%	46.7%	18.8%
at Iowa	L, 68-62	0.901	0.970	43.8%	21.4%	70.5%	13.1%
Michigan State	W, 64-63	0.961	0.916	48.1%	12.1%	78.9%	15.0%
at Minnesota	L, 70-52	0.815	1.110	33.6%	29.4%	75.0%	11.0%
Ohio State	W, 70-57	1.161	0.949	51.7%	35.3%	65.5%	14.9%
at Nebraska	W, 81-64	1.154	0.911	61.1%	18.2%	76.7%	15.7%
Purdue	W, 69-65	1.194	1.059	50.0%	31.3%	57.1%	15.6%
Rutgers	W, 79-71	1.171	1.053	59.0%	16.7%	78.1%	16.3%
at Michigan	W, 81-74	1.254	1.128	63.8%	14.8%	80.6%	12.4%
Minnesota	W, 71-69	1.100	1.060	46.6%	23.7%	66.7%	7.7%
Northwestern	W. 63-48	0.989	0.732	46.7%	21.1%	84.6%	12.4%
at Indiana	W, 60-56	0.977	0.940	50.0%	18.8%	70.0%	16.3%

If you’re wondering how these numbers stack up with the rest of the nation, interestingly, this Badgers team doesn’t really excel at one thing, other than protecting the basketball. There are 353 teams in Division I basketball.