Three Cuts: Braves stumble to open NL East title defense
Dansby Swanson has not come close to reaching the potential that virtually the entire baseball industry saw in him when he was tabbed as the 2015 No. 1 overall draft pick and consensus top-10 prospect. There’s a chance that star potential will never be realized, but there’s a very real chance the baseball world has yet to see the best version of the Atlanta Braves shortstop — a scenario supported by his strong showing in Grapefruit League action and fast start in Philadelphia.
Public opinion too often turns on young players who do not pay immediate dividends. Expectations can eventually lead to disappointment, but players are not finished products at 23 years old — in many ways, they never are. Pitchers add or “design” new pitches, tweak their mechanics, alter pitch usage and sequencing or excel in different roles for different clubs. Hitters can adjust their swings or utilize available data to improve fielding through defensive positioning.
The possible variations of any given baseball player could make for an extensive list.
Swanson has shown extended flashes of the toolsy shortstop — though not possessing one standout tool, he can affect every phase of the game in a positive way — both in his first taste of major-league action (nearly one win above replacement in his first 38 games as a 22-year-old) and in his pairing with Ozzie Albies before suffering a left wrist injury on April 14 last year. Atlanta’s shortstop was never the same after his fast start. He still put together a Gold Glove-caliber season but he underwent surgery on Nov. 5, shortly after his second straight disappointing season at the plate.
But Swanson is not resigned to being the .315 career OBP player hitting 23 percent below league average in the golden age of offensive shortstops. And if the early returns on the re-strengthened wrist are any indication, Swanson’s best offensive days are ahead of him.
While researching to find a manageable-yet-ambitious path forward for the Vanderbilt product, two former MLB shortstops/infielders stood out: Michael Young and J.J. Hardy. Both 6-foot-1, right-handed shortstops in their heyday (sound familiar?), Young and Hardy were never superstars or household names, but they proved to be instrumental pieces on winning teams over the course of their careers.
Perhaps Young and Hardy are different versions of Swanson’s best-case scenario — Young the far better hitter, Hardy far better with the glove — as both still rank as top-15 shortstops in value since 2000. Still, here’s how the three stack up through three full seasons:
Year 1 wRC+/fWAR
Young: 77/0.0
Hardy: 84/1.6
Swanson: 64/-0.3
Year 2 wRC+/fWAR
Young: 76/1.0
Hardy: 76/0.5
Swanson: 80/1.8
Year 3 wRC+/fWAR
Young: 100/2.7
Hardy: 103/3.9
Swanson: ?
Swanson just posted a better Year 2 by a significant margin despite an injury. Now it’s time to take that next leap — and it’s a significant one.
Young was a seven-time All-Star who played for Ron Washington’s World Series teams in Texas. Hardy was a two-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove winner who helped five different teams reach the postseason.
Swanson might never reach their level of consistency. He might surpass them. He’s 25 years old entering a season brimming with breakout potential.
If he’s even close to a league average hitter, he’s a 3-4 WAR player who helps Atlanta in every phase of the game. If his .353/.421/.559 spring slash line was not a complete fluke and if the shortstop who turned on a 96-mph Nick Pivetta fastball in Citizens Bank Park is a sign of things to come, there’s going to be a crowd trying to jump back on the bandwagon.
Kim Klement
