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The Atlanta Braves should add relief help this month. Even with a smaller group of surefire sellers thanks to baseball’s single trade deadline and crowded wildcard picture, there are enough options for Atlanta to upgrade its relief core. Big names should be considered — Will Smith, Shane Greene, Ken Giles — but look at what under-the-radar upgrades like Anthony Swarzak can mean for a bullpen. General manager Alex Anthopoulos took this route at last year’s deadline, acquiring Jonny Venters and Brad Brach for international bonus pool money (and technically getting Darren O’Day in the Kevin Gausman deal, though he has yet to throw a pitch in a Braves uniform).

The 2019 campaign has been fascinating for Atlanta’s bullpen efforts.

After early-season stumbles, a certain “Kimbrel Or Bust” sentiment gained traction. Luke Jackson should be one of baseball’s best bullpen stories — a player who bounced back from multiple DFAs to earn a late-inning role on a division leader — instead he’s an Internet punching bag because of his elevated blown saves tally. Practically the entire collection of presumed staples (A.J. Minter, Arodys Vizcaino, Chad Sobotka, Jonny Venters, Jesse Biddle, Darren O’Day, Dan Winkler) are either gone or have given Atlanta next to nothing. Only three teams have a better bullpen ERA since May 1, and yet it’s treated like fool’s gold.

Atlanta has proven itself capable of winning its division with the current rotation of bullpen options, but the latest variation of the argument that Anthopoulos needs to trade for a top-end bullpen arm is that the Braves can’t win in October without an established, lights-out closer. This tracks with the common refrain that the final three outs are just different and unless you have a player who can guarantee ninth-inning security then you’re doomed when postseason baseball rolls around. But there are no guarantees. Just ask the past two World Series champions.

In December 2015, following a surprise playoff run with an exciting 25-and-under core including Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa, the Houston Astros went for it. They traded former No. 1 overall pick Mark Appel, top-100 pitching prospect Vince Velasquez, young major-league arm Brett Oberholtzer and minor-leaguers Harold Arauz and Thomas Eshelman to Philadelphia in exchange for top-end closer Ken Giles. This came on the heels of Houston’s bullpen imploding during the 2015 ALDS against Kansas City and its dominant relief core. In retrospect, it’s turned into a fairly even trade: Philadelphia extracted a little more regular-season value thanks to Velasquez and the Astros got a good reliever and a World Series ring. Here’s how that regular-season value has played out so far, per FanGraphs:

Astros received: 3.2 fWAR

Phillies received: 5.0 fWAR

(Velasquez has declined since becoming one of baseball’s most exciting young starters a couple years ago, Appel has yet to make the majors as one of the biggest draft busts in recent memory and Oberholtzer completely fell off the post-trade map. In retrospect, Astros outfielder Derek Fisher’s original inclusion would have played out better for Philly than Appel, though the 25-year-old has yet to figure out major-league pitching in limited playing time.)

The Boston Red Sox made a similar move one month earlier. General manager Dave Dombrowski’s first significant roster splash arrived in the form of Craig Kimbrel that November, costing the club top-100 prospects Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra along with infielder Carlos Asuaje and left-hander Logan Allen. It was another monster prospect haul that still appears related to the Royals’ bullpen-driven World Series runs — a precursor to the Giles deal or Cleveland and Chicago gearing up for their own World Series pushes with Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman, respectively, in 2016 — but it’s one that has yet to really hurt the Red Sox.

Manny Margot is the only regular major-leaguer on the San Diego Padres and, though still just 24 years old, he has yet to emerge as a star. Again, here’s the value scale to date, keeping in mind Boston eventually got a World Series ring out of the arrangement:

Padres received: 3.8 WAR

Red Sox received: 5.7 WAR

Given Margot’s decent floor thanks to his speed and defensive ability and Logan Allen’s potential, the Padres will likely win out on the value scale over time but the Red Sox would make this trade again any day of the week. When you look at both the Giles and Kimbrel trades, it seems to point to two truths: Prospects are not guaranteed to pan out and World Series champs need top-end closers.

Here’s the problem: That’s not exactly how things played out.

For starters, the Giles and Kimbrel trades can be considered successful because both players came with multiple years of control. They weren’t rentals. If the Astros had given up Vince Velasquez for 2016 Ken Giles (1.4 WAR, 4.11 ERA) and didn’t win a title, it would’ve been a miss. If the Red Sox had only gotten 2016 Craig Kimbrel (1.2 WAR, 3.40 ERA) for that package, it would’ve been a win for San Diego. Instead, both relievers were traded with three-plus years of control. Keep that in mind when formulating fair trade packages for the likes of Will Smith.

Perhaps more importantly, neither reliever played a central role in his respective team’s World Series run. The Astros’ four World Series wins were closed out by Chris Devenski, Brad Peacock, Joe Musgrove and Charlie Morton. Giles carried an 11.74 ERA that postseason. Kimbrel saved one World Series game and carried a 5.91 postseason ERA; Boston turned to Joe Kelly and Chris Sale for the final outs. (Imagine the reaction if Luke Jackson posted a 6.00 ERA this postseason.) The postseason’s built-in days off makes it tailor-made for riding a team’s best arms, often times opening the door for starters to work high-leverage situations in relief. In fact, the Royals are the only championship team to have their season’s final out recorded by their designated closer in the past five years.

Atlanta followed this strategy last October by carrying Max Fried, Touki Toussaint and Sean Newcomb as NLDS relievers. It will have even more internal options this time around.

Repeat: Atlanta should upgrade its relief options. Anthopoulos and the front office have all the ammunition they will ever need to find relief help, even if it is on the margins with an under-the-radar name. If a top-end closer, particularly a controllable arm, becomes available at value, the Braves should be involved in the bidding. But suggesting that the Braves “can’t win in October without a new closer” is to ignore recent postseason history.

Brett Davis