Three Cuts: Taking stock of Braves at quarter mark; Austin Riley, Ronald Acuña Jr.’s exclusive company
1. Statements made against MLB’s deepest division
As we’re all well aware, the NL East isn’t quite what was promised to be.
Yes, the Marlins and their NL-worst minus-92 run differential, are what we expected. But the Mets and Nationals are overall both below league average offensively (98 wRC+ for New York; 93 for D.C.) and on the mound (the Mets are at 90 ERA+; the Nats come in at 90). That finds Washington nine games back in the division, and while the Mets are back to .500, keep in mind they’ve won nine of their last 15 by playing five straight series vs. Miami, the Nats and Tigers (minus-97 run differential).
The division has turned into a two-horse race at this point between the Phillies and Braves, with the former up 1 1/2 games and having swept their only meeting in the series-opening series. But while Philly has built that lead in taking advantage of the down East — winning 15 of 25 games in the division — the Braves have reached 30 wins playing the second-fewest games of any team in their own division at 13, and have made some major statements against what’s currently the deepest division in baseball.
The NL Central is the only set that can boast four teams above .500, and the Braves are 10-5 against it, having swept the division-leading Cubs, winning a three-game series vs. the second-place Brewers and, most recently, taking the second of two series against the Cardinals.
Consider at this point in 2018, the Braves were 10-10 outside of the East, with 34 of their games played in the division. Now, they’re five games above .500 outside the East, buoyed by a .666 winning percentage against the Central that’s the NL’s second-best outside a team’s own division, and the fifth-highest in MLB.
The Braves trail the A’s (.888), Rays (.714), Twins (.687), and Brewers (.684) in that department, but the difference is who’ve they’ve done it against. Oakland and Tampa Bay have done that damage vs. a bad American League Central, Minnesota has beaten up on the AL East but has played 13 of 16 vs. the Blue Jays and Orioles and Milwaukee has gone 13-6 vs. the East by winning eight times vs. the Mets and Nationals.
That Atlanta has navigated a schedule heavy on matchups vs. the league’s toughest division and is still on course for another 90-win season is a statement that can’t be ignored.
Jeff Curry Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports