Tiers for 18 CFP contenders, from Ohio State to Penn State, USC to UCLA

By Bryan Fischer
FOX Sports College Football Writer

The college football season is a month old and as much as the race for various conference titles has begun in earnest, so too has the chase for the College Football Playoff.

The vast majority of teams are focused far more on local matters after limping through the non-conference slate with a loss or two, but the dream of holding that gleaming gold trophy remains alive for a handful of programs.

Some can rightfully claim it’s almost destiny. A select few believe they have what it takes to make the field. An even scarcer contingent knows that as good as things have gone up to this point, they must take care of business to have a shot.

Here’s a look at who’s really a contender and which others have work left to do.

NATIONAL TITLE OR BUST

No. 3 Ohio State

Best win so far: 52-21 over Wisconsin

Biggest challenge ahead: at Penn State (Oct. 29)

Odds to win national title (via FOX Bet): +275 (bet $10 to win $37.50 total)

It feels like people have punished the Buckeyes for only beating Notre Dame by 11 points in the opener and not come back around to see that their offense has since gone full Death Star. OSU is No. 3 in scoring offense, has scored on every trip to the red zone, and leads the country in plays of 30-plus yards. All this coming despite the absence of C.J. Stroud’s top playmaker, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. 

What really gives this crew a shot is a defense that is showing marked improvement under new DC Jim Knowles. The Buckeyes still allow a few big plays, but their ability to get stops on third downs is night-and-day compared to 2021. Ohio State hosts rival Michigan at the Big House for a revenge game everybody is looking forward to, but the trip to Happy Valley has historically been the bigger challenge. Nobody has played the program closer than Penn State has under James Franklin and the margin is often razor-thin at Beaver Stadium. 

No. 1 Georgia (4-0)

Best win so far: 49-4 over Oregon (in Atlanta)

Biggest challenge ahead: vs. No. 8 Tennessee (Nov. 5)

Odds to win national title: +180 (bet $10 to win $28 total)

The reigning national title holders are primed to accomplish a rarity in the sport and repeat as champions. Offensively, this group is more than a step ahead of last year, with QB Stetson Bennett finally being taken seriously and TE Brock Bowers looking like a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender. Given how weak the SEC East is, you can go ahead and book them for a trip to Atlanta come early December, but there does appear to be one potential landmine ahead for an improved Vols squad. The Bulldogs will have to pay extra attention to Josh Heupel’s fast-paced offense after Kent State showed they were a little suspect to big plays on the back end, and have not quite been as active in getting to opposing quarterbacks (one sack per game, same as UMass).

No. 2 Alabama

Best win so far: 20-19 at Texas

Biggest challenge ahead: at No. 8 Tennessee (Nov. 15)

Odds to win national title: +180 (bet $10 to win $28 total)

Nearly losing in Austin lowered the consensus opinion of the Crimson Tide as the team to beat, but folks forget that the bulk of this roster also had a few close calls last year against Auburn, Arkansas and LSU, plus lost at Texas A&M. They have the Heisman Trophy winner who hasn’t lost a step, an improved running game and one of the best defensive players in the country. Oh, and some guy named Nick Saban running the show. He’s been in this spot before and is no doubt using a drop in the rankings as underdog fuel the rest of the campaign.

FINAL FOUR CONTENDERS

No. 4 Michigan

Best win so far: 34-27 over Maryland

Biggest challenge ahead: at Ohio State (Nov. 26)

Odds to win national title: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)

A lackluster non-conference schedule has distorted the evaluation of the Wolverines somewhat despite stellar numbers (No. 2 scoring offense, No. 7 scoring defense). Opponents aside, this looks like a team that has reloaded under Jim Harbaugh after reaching the College Football Playoff last season. New coordinators on both sides of the ball seem to have adjusted just fine, and the move to J.J. McCarthy at quarterback was always a decision made about elevating the ceiling for the program to not just get to a semifinal, but win one.

Blake Corum has been terrific in the backfield and a Heisman candidate in his own right, running behind an offensive line that really gets downhill with a purpose. They need to be better at finishing drives and converting field goals into touchdowns, but do benefit from having time to work out issues with a schedule that sets up nicely. Following a tricky trip to offensively struggling Iowa and Indiana, they’ll host both Penn State and Michigan State at the Big House. Plus they close with Rutgers, Nebraska and Illinois before the big test in Columbus to end the year.

No. 6 USC

Best win so far: 17-14 at Oregon State

Biggest challenge ahead: at Utah (Oct. 15)

Odds to win national title: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)

Before the season, even some around USC were questioning why the Trojans had been gathering so much national title buzz. Sure, a conference title was obtainable and, with it, a berth into the playoff. Yet the start to the Lincoln Riley era seems to be going even better than anybody in cardinal and gold could have predicted, as Troy has returned to the top 10 and transformed into a legitimate final four contender. 

Last week’s struggles in Corvallis aside, the offense has been one of the sharpest units in the country, with the ability of QB Caleb Williams to go over the top to Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison or hand the ball off to veteran tailback Travis Dye. The key question is if what USC is doing defensively is going to be sustainable after a remarkable turnover margin of +14 on the year — almost one per quarter so far. Even if things drop off a little in that department, the schedule could make up for it: There are just two more trips out of Los Angeles left, and only Utah is currently ranked.

SERIOUS CHALLENGERS

No. 12 Penn State

Best win so far: 41-12 at Auburn

Biggest challenge ahead: vs. Ohio State (Oct. 29)

Odds to win national title: +7000 (bet $10 to win $710 total)

Going down to the Plains and throttling Auburn was not just a win, but a statement of intent for James Franklin’s team. Sean Clifford is not truly beloved by the fan base, but he’s a veteran who has seen it all and remains capable of hitting the big play just when the team needs it. Nicholas Singleton has been a real revelation, too. The freshman is averaging nine yards per carry and looks like the real deal amid all the comparisons to Saquon Barkley. They’ve got the secondary to match up with some of the Big Ten’s best and have a season-defining October slate at Michigan and home against Minnesota and Ohio State. 

No. 18 Washington

Best win so far: 39-28 vs. Michigan State

Biggest challenge ahead: at Oregon (Nov. 12)

Odds to win national title: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)

The last several years have led Huskies fans to wonder what the program could be capable of if they just had an offense that could pair with a regularly salty defense (or even just a signal-caller capable of connecting on passes more than 20 yards downfield). Now it seems like we have an answer under new coach Kalen DeBoer, who has injected life into the team on Montlake and inspired some wistful feelings of the team’s 2016 run. QB Michael Penix Jr. leads the country in yards per game and has already thrown 12 touchdowns in four games. The Huskies are also allowing just 2.6 yards per carry, have recorded seven takeaways and rank third in sacks. Just as important, the schedule sets up favorably by missing USC and Utah on the Pac-12 rotation and an easy path to rolling into Eugene undefeated if they take care of UCLA on Friday night.

No. 5 Clemson

Best win so far: 51-45 at Wake Forest

Biggest challenge ahead: vs. No. 10 N.C. State (Saturday)

Odds to win national title: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)

If the name didn’t say Clemson on the front of the jerseys, and Dabo Swinney didn’t have a few national title rings in a box, would the Tigers be ranked in the top five of the polls? The top 10? Probably not. Yes, D.J. Uiagalelei looks more like the quarterback he did as a freshman throwing the ball over the yard. Yes, the offensive line and receiving corps look slightly improved. Yes, the defense is stacked with former five-stars. Still, this isn’t a group that looks elite like they once were when being regular CFP contenders, and they have an especially problematic secondary that has contributed to ranking 93rd in allowing plays of 20-plus yards. It’s possible that Clemson can round into form and rack up some quality wins like against N.C. State this week. It’s far more likely, however, that they trip up and need some help.

CAPABLE CONTENDERS

No. 9 Oklahoma State

Best win so far: 34-17 vs. Arizona State

Biggest challenge ahead: at No. 16 Baylor (Saturday)

Odds to win national title: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)

Mike Gundy has gotten the Cowboys back to being regular Big 12 challengers, but we’ll see if they’re capable of aiming higher when they take their first road trip to Waco on Saturday. Spencer Sanders is playing within the offense and not trying to do too much for the first time in his career, but giving up 44 points to Central Michigan remains a red flag.

No. 12 Utah

Best win so far: 34-13 at Arizona State

Biggest challenge ahead: vs. USC (Oct. 15)

Odds to win national title: +6600 (bet $10 to win $670 total)

There’s not much margin for error left with the Utes after dropping that game at Florida, but the Pac-12 favorites remain in good position in the league. They’ve managed to get things rolling on both sides of the ball and look much more in sync offensively than they were at this time a year ago. They’re also well suited to tackling their biggest challengers in USC and Oregon with the way they run the ball, control games and force turnovers off greedy quarterbacks. Running off 12 in a row to make the playoff isn’t unfathomable given the depth Kyle Whittingham has to work with.

No. 13 Oregon

Best win so far: 41-20 vs. BYU

Biggest challenge ahead: vs. Washington (Nov. 12)

Odds to win national title: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)

Everybody was left questioning the Ducks when they couldn’t do anything to Georgia, but it turns out that the reigning champs are still elite this year. QB Bo Nix has taken better care of the ball and the offense has turned into first-down machines as a result. The defense has not jelled as much as Dan Lanning would like, but there’s talent to shape on that side of the ball without question. The biggest challenge they have is also their biggest opportunity: games against UCLA, Washington, Utah, Oregon State and potentially USC would be viewed favorably by the committee if Oregon runs the table.

No. 16 Baylor

Best win so far: 31-24 at Iowa State

Biggest challenge ahead: at Oklahoma (Nov. 5)

Odds to win national title: +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)

The Bears looked much more like the Big 12’s best in beating up the Cyclones, with the offense finally showing why Blake Shapen was chosen to be the quarterback that can elevate them past a New Year’s Six appearance. Both Oklahoma schools will be tricky matchups, but the real concern for Dave Aranda is an unrelenting conference slate where anybody can beat anybody.

No. 18 Oklahoma

Best win so far: 49-14 at Nebraska

Biggest challenge ahead: vs. Oklahoma State (Nov. 19)

Odds to win national title: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)

Brent Venables has mostly been able to get the defense to clamp down on allowing big plays, but the Sooners were exposed some in that area in the loss to Kansas State. If that was more of a one-off, then the Big 12 offers plenty of opportunities to notch quality victories and get back into the playoff chase. It won’t be easy, however, and they’ll need to ensure the offense can more consistently find success in the downfield passing game that has shifted into neutral a quarter or two every game under Dillon Gabriel. 

DARK HORSES

Minnesota +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)

The Golden Gophers have yet to allow a rushing touchdown and lead the nation in scoring on the ground. That’s a recipe for success to go with a schedule that may have just one or two ranked foes the rest of the way.

UCLA +20000 (bet $10 to win $2,010 total)

Chip Kelly’s veteran-laden Bruins are averaging more than 500 yards and 40 points per game offensively and are on a seven-game winning streak. They’ve got a chance to really build a nice resume, too, with Washington, Utah and USC all coming to the Rose Bowl, plus a late October trip to Oregon on the docket.

No. 8 Tennessee +6600 (bet $10 to win $670 total)

The Vols have plenty of scoring and have a borderline Heisman candidate in Hendon Hooker running things. A suspect passing defense combined with a tough schedule may be too much to overcome, even if a New Year’s Six bowl looks somewhat realistic.

No. 7 Kentucky +12500 (bet $10 to win $1,260 total)

We’ll see if the return of Chris Rodriguez Jr. boosts Kentucky’s stock, but the Wildcats were lacking at times in a pair of wins over MAC teams sandwiched around a win in Gainesville. They get Georgia at home and do have to go to Knoxville.

Florida State +15000 (bet $10 to win $1,510 total)

The ‘Noles look vastly improved in the trenches this year and really seem to have something clicking with Jordan Travis and a host of speedy playmakers. Their season will be defined in the next three weeks though: vs. Wake Forest, at N.C. State and home against Clemson.

Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.

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