USFL odds Week 10: Panthers cover as favorites in final week

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

We did it, folks! We made it to the final regular season week of the inaugural USFL season. From a bettor’s perspective and from a football fan’s perspective, the last nine weeks have been a treat.

From fading Jeff Fisher to riding the Stallions, some of the best bets were predictable. Some were not so surefire. Underdogs covered at times when I predicted they wouldn’t, and we had a mixed bag went it came to the overs and unders.

But we made it. Week 10 is here which means I’ve got my best bets for you for the final time for regular season, with all odds via FOX Bet.

Philadelphia Stars (6-3) vs. New Jersey Generals (8-1), 12 p.m. ET Saturday, USA

I’m going to root for points in this contest. 

These teams rank first and second in offensive efficiency, and they also come in at sixth and seventh in defensive efficiency. The Stars have scored the most points in the league while the Generals are third in that category. New Jersey leads the league in rushing while Philadelphia has the worst rushing defense in the league, allowing a whopping 148 yards per game. The Generals have only sacked the quarterback 10 times which means the Stars’ QB Case Cookus should cook. 

We get a track meet in the first game of the weekend.

I’ll take the over.

PICK: Over 41.5 points scored by both teams combined 

Michigan Panthers (1-8) vs. Pittsburgh Maulers (1-8), 12 p.m. ET Sunday, USA

I am going to do something I thought I’d never do in this 10-week USFL season. I will wager on the Jeff Fisher-led Michigan Panthers team against the Pittsburgh Maulers. 

Oh, boy.

Michigan covered for only the third time this season last weekend in a 1-point loss to the Stars. The Panthers continued their outstanding defense this season, holding the highest-scoring team in the league to just 17 points. They allow the second-least passing yards and are fourth-best in rushing defense.

On offense, the Panthers aren’t anything special and are playing a stout Maulers defense. Michigan is on its fourth quarterback, but according to Eric Eager of Pro Football Focus, they are a respectable fifth in offensive efficiency. Despite the quarterback issues, the Panthers are first in the league at moving the chains. Imagine that.

Fisher and his Panthers are facing a Maulers team that has an identical record of 1-8, but they got to their dismal record in a different way. 

The Maulers’ offense continues to be putrid, scoring only 126 points in their first nine games. They have failed to score more than 18 points in their last four games. The Maulers are seventh in passing yards per game and with just under 100 rushing yards per game, they rank seventh in the league there. No surprise but they also rank seventh in offensive expected points answered. 

Guess there’s a first time for everything. I’m picking Panthers.

PICK: Panthers (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points

Birmingham Stallions (8-1) vs. Tampa Bay Bandits (4-5), 4 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX

The 8-1 Stallions clinched a playoff berth after beating the Maulers 26-16 in Week 7. Since that win, the Stallions — who enter Week 10 as the third-ranked offense — appear to have shut it down on offense. They’ve scored 10 and 15 points the last two weekends, and they now face a Bandits’ defense that is third in defensive expected points added (EPA) and only allows 18.9 points per game.

On the other side is the Bandits’ poor scoring offense, scoring the second-fewest points in the league. The Bandits have given the ball away 19 times this season and have a minus-13 turnover margin. They also only convert 34.1% of their third downs. And note, the Stallions’ defense is legit, allowing the second-fewest points in the league. The Stallions have not allowed more than 17 points since Week 2. 

I’ll take the under in this defensive minded game.

PICK: Under 41.5 points scored by both teams combined 

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!