Vikings 2021 draft pick scenarios heading into Week 17

Minnesota’s tumultuous 2020 season comes to a merciful end Sunday when the Vikings (6-9) visit the Detroit Lions (5-10).

The campaign began with five losses in Minnesota’s first six games, prompting fans to switch gears and clamor for the Vikings to embrace the rebuild and “tank for Trevor [Lawrence].” But then, victories over Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago, Carolina and Jacksonville evened the Vikings’ record at 6-6 and had fans hoping for a playoff berth. However, three straight losses have Minnesota officially out of the postseason and looking towards the 2021 NFL draft once again.

It all comes down to Week 17. The final slate of regular-season games will determine where the Vikings are slotted in the draft. Since Minnesota doesn’t own a second-round pick (thanks to the trade for defensive end Yannick Ngakoue), positioning in the first round and beyond will mean even more.

If the season ended after Week 16, the Vikings would own the No. 13 overall pick — their highest selection since drafting cornerback Trae Waynes No. 11 overall in 2015.

Minnesota is one of six teams with a 6-9 record.

With the expanded 2021 postseason, the non-playoff teams are assigned picks 1-18. If multiple teams finish with the same record, the first tiebreaker is strength of schedule. The team with the weaker strength of schedule receives the better pick.

Let’s run through a few scenarios on what could unfold in Week 17.

If the Vikings defeat the Lions on Sunday, they’ll finish the season at 7-9.

Even if Las Vegas (7-8) loses to Denver and drops to 7-9, the Vikings will win the tiebreaker with the Raiders due to a softer strength of schedule. So, the worst draft position Minnesota could end up with after the season concludes is No. 15 overall.

If the Vikings beat Detroit, fans will cheer for New England (6-9) to take down the red-hot New York Jets and San Francisco (6-9) to defeat Seattle. If the Patriots or 49ers also win, Minnesota will still be slotted ahead of them in the draft.

So, if Minnesota tops Detroit, the Vikings will select either No. 13, No. 14 or No. 15 overall.

Now, if the Vikings lose to the Motor City Kitties — that’s where things get interesting. Minnesota would be 6-10 and could potentially sneak into the top 10.

Due to the tiebreaker, Minnesota can’t surpass Detroit or the New York Giants in the draft order regardless of Sunday’s results. So, the highest pick the Vikings can earn is No. 9 overall. For that to occur, Minnesota is going to need a lot of help.

The Vikings would need this to happen:

— Minnesota (6-9) loses to Detroit (5-10).

— Carolina (5-10) beats New Orleans (11-4).

— Denver (5-10) defeats Las Vegas (7-8).

— Dallas (6-9) takes down the Giants (5-10).

— The L.A. Chargers (6-9) beat Kansas City (14-1).

— Washington (6-9) defeats Philadelphia (4-10-1).

If Washington falls to the Eagles and Dallas beats the Giants, the Football Team would lose the NFC East division title and, due to the tiebreaker, jump ahead of the Vikings in the draft order.

What are the odds Minnesota claims the No. 9 overall pick? ESPN analyst Seth Walder gives it less than a 1% chance. According to the William Hill Sportsbook, the Vikings are favored to beat Detroit by 6.5 points (as of Tuesday). The Broncos, Chargers and Panthers are underdogs in their matchups, although Kansas City is expected to rest its starters, which could produce a win for Los Angeles.

In summation, the highest the Vikings will pick in the 2021 draft is No. 9, and the lowest is No. 15.

Minnesota will need a lot of help to crack the top 10, but who knows? In a season where nothing seemed to go the Vikings’ way, maybe Week 17 will be a different story.