Week 10 NFL picks against the spread recap with Jason McIntyre | WHAT DID YOU LEARN?

I’m still reeling from Sunday’s scores … what a day in the NFL. For starters: 10 of 12 games were decided by one score or fewer … and one of the two blowouts was the Saints (7-1) going down at home to the bottom of the barrel Falcons (1-7). You had the Browns (2-6) beating the Bills (6-2), the home underdog Steelers upset the Rams and the Titans shock the Chiefs. Perhaps the biggest surprise is that the Dolphins won – again. Remember: Miami was allegedly tanking, starting the season 0-4 … but they’ve covered an incredible five times in a row after beating the Colts in Indy.

In betting, an inch might as well be a mile if you don’t cover

This was a tough loss – with Christian McCaffrey ruled down on the 1-inch line as the clock ran out. The Panthers made two costly turnovers, were killed by a brutal whistle on a pivotal third down late in the first half … and couldn’t cover the spread.

Carolina’s game plan was up-and-down, but ultimately throwing the ball 43 times in the snow with a first-year starter wasn’t optimal. In the AFC, the Panthers would be a dangerous sleeper … in the NFC, they won’t make the playoffs without a miracle.

Lesson learned: Stop taking bad teams in a good “spot”

The Bengals were off a bye and testing out a new quarterback. Backup quarterbacks have fared well this season: Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan Tannehill, Mason Rudolph – and this was Ryan Finley’s chance to do so at home, against a defense coming off a win over the Patriots. The last seven teams to beat New England and then open the next game as a favorite of a touchdown … were 0-7 ATS.

Well – make that 1-7. The Ravens led 21-3, and then Finley threw an 89-yard interception to end the game. At 28-3, there was no comeback happening … Lamar Jackson is ridiculous: He rushed for a touchdown, threw for three more and was basically flawless – making a strong case for MVP.

Don’t undervalue the importance of every unit when placing your bets – including special teams

This was a brutal gambling beat of the Chiefs -3.5 … and just a devastating loss in for Kansas City – whose special teams cost them the game in the final few minutes. The Chiefs dominated the game statistically: 530 yards, running 78 plays to just 49 for the Titans and led by five with :90 left when they lined up for a field goal to put them up by eight. The snap happened before anyone was ready … and the Chiefs holder just threw the ball away – an intentionally grounding penalty.

Patrick Mahomes took KC 61 yards in less than a minute to win the game. Then, the Chiefs special teams screwed up again – with a snap before the protection was ready … and the 52-yard attempt to force overtime was blocked. The abysmal Kansas City run defense showed up again, giving up a 68-yard touchdown to Derrick Henry (who had a 188-yard game). Incredible stat: Andy Reid’s last 13 losses have all come by seven points or fewer – the longest streak in NFL history.

The Browns could be a bet-on team … if they increased their red zone efficiency

This one screamed “right side, wrong result.” Technically a push isn’t the worst result in the world – but the Browns had this game … and repeatedly gave it away. They were despicable in the red zone again, costing them what would have been an early 14-0 lead.

If someone can explain this to me, please let me know: Freddie Kitchens called for 38 Baker Mayfield passes against a porous run defense in a game where they led or within three points the entire way. Backing Cleveland continues to be extremely frustrating – they seem to always play down to their opponent. On the plus side, the number of penalties committed has decreased each week!

You just can’t win them all

From a point spread perspective: This is the biggest upset of the season, as the Falcons were 13-point underdogs. It ended my Survivor League season. The 30th rated DVOA defense held the No. 8 offense without a touchdown. Atlanta had seven sacks all season … they had six alone on Sunday. The Falcons weren’t impressive offensively – just 4.5 yards per play – and turned the ball over … but the Saints were a shocking 0-for-3 in the red zone and committed 12 penalties.