What Yankees’ struggles mean for their title chances

By Jake Mintz
FOX Sports MLB Writer

Another close home loss to a division rival. Another lifeless display from a struggling lineup. Another beautiful August evening at Yankee Stadium dampened by a torrential downpour of boos.

With their 3-1 loss to Tampa Bay on Tuesday, the Yankees fell to 3-12 in their past 15 games and 16-24 since July 1. That’s a worse mark than the rebuilding Cubs, the last-place A’s and most importantly, the juggernaut Astros, who now have a three-game buffer atop the American League. If Houston can keep New York at arm’s length until October, the Astros will get home-field advantage for the postseason.

And even though the Yankees’ scorching start to the season means they still have a firm nine-game lead in the AL East, the vibes in the Bronx right now are decidedly “not good.”

Yankees fans resort to cutting hair

New York Yankees fans started cutting each other’s hair out of boredom during the team’s Tuesday matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays.

And to think that just six short weeks ago, everything at The House That Jeter Built was rainbows, butterflies and endless sunshine. Daily Aaron Judge home runs were as reliable as the sunrise. Clay Holmes was the best closer in baseball. Matt Carpenter and his gunslinging mustache were a feel-good rejuvenation for the ages. Hell, even Jose Trevino made the All-Star team.

So what in the name of Matt Carpenter’s mustache is happening now? What in the world is going on? How did a team on pace to challenge the best record in franchise history fall off so sharply, so suddenly? And most importantly: Could this recent skid have any lasting impact on the Yankees’ postseason hopes?

Let’s take a look at the issues and then decide if it’s time for panic in The Bronx.

Offensive Cratering

Since the calendar turned to August, the Yankees have put up the fifth-fewest runs in all of baseball. As a team, their home runs are down, their strikeouts are up and their WRC+ (an all-encompassing offensive metric where 100 is considered league average) is a lowly 22nd in the league.

But despite the team’s recent offensive listlessness, Judge hasn’t missed a beat. Even though he went 0-for-4 on Tuesday with a pair of strikeouts, the impending free agent has continued his torrid campaign and remains the favorite for AL MVP.

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The supporting cast is a different story: Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres and Aaron Hicks have all been catastrophically bad over the past few weeks.

Rizzo has been a reliable offensive contributor for most of the season but has hit a cold stretch of late, with just four hits in his past 34 at-bats. That frustration bubbled out in an epic dugout tirade on Monday night in which the veteran first baseman went absolutely ballistic, smashing his bat against the dugout wall.

Torres, who’d been in the midst of an impressive bounce-back season, has looked Space Jam-ed, going 9-for-55 with just one walk and one extra base hit over that span, good for a -3 WRC+. The infielder’s batted-ball data hasn’t changed significantly, indicating this might just be a run of bad luck, but still, that stat line deserves a hefty “oof.”

And Hicks, the scapegoat for Monday’s 4-0 loss to the Rays after he misplayed a ball in center field, is in a 5-for-42 stretch, with zero extra base hits and just five walks. Hicks looked downtrodden and despondent after his unfortunate showing on Monday and was out of the lineup on Tuesday. 

It’s been a bumpy season for the veteran outfielder, and even though manager Aaron Boone pushed back against the idea of Hicks as an “unplayable player” in a pregame presser Tuesday, it’s clear that Hicks hasn’t been himself at the plate recently and might have played his way out of a starting spot.

Combine the recent struggles of those three with the good-not-great performance of Josh Donaldson, the slow start to Andrew Benintendi‘s Yankees career and Giancarlo Stanton‘s time on the injured list and New York’s lineup goes from formidable to remarkably shallow.

Injuries

Bumps and bruises happen to every team in baseball. They’re a part of the game, an unavoidable reality of a six-month season. For the first few months of the season, the Yankees, and their rotation in particular, were a remarkably healthy bunch. Starters Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes Jr., Luis Severino, Jameson Taillon and Jordan Montgomery weren’t just pitching well, they were pitching every time their spot came around. That was a huge part of New York’s success.

But now Montgomery is on the Cardinals, traded for Harrison Bader and his outfield defense at the deadline, and Severino hasn’t pitched since July 13 as he makes his way back from a lat strain. He’s due back in the next few weeks.

In late July, the bullpen took a big hit when shutdown reliever Michael King fractured his right elbow, requiring surgery and rendering him unavailable for the remainder of the season. He’d been one the club’s most reliable relief options.

The aforementioned Carpenter, who’d revitalized his career out of absolutely nowhere to provide the Yanks with some much-needed lefty thump off the bench, fouled a ball off his left foot on Aug. 8, fracturing the darn thing. Miguel Andújar was called up from Triple-A for the eight millionth time to fill that spot, but he has struggled mightily at the dish.

And then there’s Stanton. The massive slugger has been on the IL since late July with Achilles tendonitis. He’s expected to head out on a minor-league rehab assignment later this week and will likely rejoin the big-league club within the next 10 days. His power and presence in the middle of the Yankees’ lineup has been sorely missed.

Clay Holmes Needs A Nap

For the first three months of the season, Holmes was a revelation, allowing only two runs in 36.2 innings. After Aroldis Chapman got hurt and fell off, the former Pirate took hold of the closer role and looked to have solidified himself as one of the most automatic ninth inning guys in the league.

But the season is long and relievers are volatile beings, and since July 1 Holmes has allowed 11 runs in 12.1 innings. Quick math: That’s an 8.03 ERA, untenably bad for a closer. The sinkerballer mentioned recently that he’d been experiencing some debilitating back pain and an IL stint to get him healthy and clicking again is expected.

After his heroic first half, Holmes really just needs a bit of rest for his aching back and six days on a beach with his feet up and a piña colada in his hand. The Yankees’ World Series hopes are incredibly dependent on which Clay Holmes shows up in October. 

Panic? Chill? In Between?

The truth is boring, as it so often is. The Yankees likely aren’t as good as they played for the first few months of the year and aren’t as bad as they’ve played over the past six weeks. Sure, Houston is a better ballclub — deeper, with a more well-rounded lineup — but the Yankees are undeniably the second-best team in the American League. 

What does that mean for October?

The offense will come around. Even though the lineup has been the main source of strife this month, there’s too much talent and too much track record here for the offense to stay this bad for much longer. 

Hicks’ struggles and Carpenter’s injury and the resulting Miguel Andújar at-bats, are cause for real concern, but Torres, Rizzo, Benintendi and Donaldson should be fine. Whenever Stanton gets back, he’ll be fine, too. The lineup is not the real problem here.

The bullpen is. 

With Holmes scuffling, the back of the game becomes a huge question mark for the Yanks, especially come October when bullpens are even more vital. Chapman has been better-ish recently, but still looks far from his old self. Albert Abreu, Wandy Peralta and Ron Marinaccio have been great in mid- to high-leverage spots, but none has manned the ninth inning yet. It’s too early to cast judgment on deadline acquisitions Scott Effross and Lou Trivino, but both have underwhelmed in the early going.

At least Marinaccio is nails.

So while there’s no need to pull the fire alarm and leap into unmitigated panic, the Yankees’ roster still has some real issues as currently constructed. Let’s talk again in mid-September once Stanton, Severino and Holmes are back to truly know how this team will perform in the postseason.

Jake Mintz is the louder half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He’s an Orioles fan living in New York City, and thus, he leads a lonely existence most Octobers. If he’s not watching baseball, he’s almost certainly riding his bike. You can follow him on Twitter @Jake_Mintz.