Why Orioles rookie Adley Rutschman is already MLB’s best catcher
By Jake Mintz
FOX Sports MLB Writer
Adley Rutschman is already the best catcher in baseball.
The magic happens at least once a game, but only if you’re paying attention.
It’s not particularly sexy, or eye-catching, but on a daily basis, the Orioles‘ rookie catcher does something downright remarkable at the plate: He doesn’t swing.
Sometimes it’s a rip-curl slider that darts across the plate toward Rutschman’s back foot, zipping from strike to ball in the blink of an eye. Other times, it’s a changeup, that ever-tantalizing offering which lingers in the zone, masquerading itself as a heater before floating down toward the earth, out of reach. But more often than not it’s a fastball just above the strike zone, inches over the letters of his jersey.
Rutschman spits on those, too.
The 24-year-old’s superb swing decision-making, and more specifically, his ability to lay off pitches beyond the strike zone, has been the secret sauce, the Chemical X, behind his awesome rookie season. In fact, it’s a huge part of what makes him the best catcher in baseball mere months into his MLB career.
Now, obviously, that’s a big claim, an inflammatory statement. J.T. Realmuto would disagree, as would Willson Contreras and Alejandro Kirk. Will Smith is sending goons to my house as we speak, Sean Murphy is unfriending me on Facebook. Adley has only eight home runs! That’s fewer than Jose Trevino! How could he really be the best catcher out there?
Because Rutschman didn’t get called up until the end of May, his raw totals lag behind his backstop competitors. But if you sift through the rate stats and dive into the numbers a bit, the truth becomes crystal clear.
Sticklers would say that you can’t just “take out” a month or a week of at-bats — that’s statistical cherry-picking, a war crime in 18 states — but if you remove Rutschman’s first 15 games as a big leaguer, his batting line looks significantly rosier.
In those games, the highly anticipated top prospect went a horrid 8-for-56 (.143 batting average) with just four walks and no homers. He looked uncomfortable at the plate, totally out of rhythm, unable to properly time up major-league hurlers and their world-beating stuff.
But since then, Rutschman hasn’t just been the best-hitting catcher in baseball, he’s been one of the most productive sluggers in the entire league, period. From June 10 onward, he’s hitting .282/.397/.509 in 262 plate appearances and is tied for the league lead in doubles with 25. His .906 OPS over that span is 11th best in MLB, behind only big names like Goldschmidt, Judge and Arenado. And during that time, Rutschman has walked as often as he has struck out, a truly remarkable feat for a rookie.
The two main causes for concern that could potentially limit the switch hitter’s offensive game moving forward are his bizarre batting splits (.530 OPS as a righty against lefty pitchers) and his average exit velocity (87.9 mph, only 30th percentile). There’s no doubt that Rutschman has been less dangerous and seems less comfortable from the right-handed batter’s box this season, but that can likely be chalked up to small sample size. Last year in a full minor-league season, he was actually better as a righty, posting a 1.060 OPS from that side of the dish.
Rutschman’s mediocre exit velocity is more of an issue, but he can still be a valuable player without spraying lightning bolts all over the field. He’ll never rank alongside the Judges, Stantons and Oneil Cruzes of the world at the top of the exit velo leaderboards, and that’s OK. That Rutschman has been this productive without obliterating the baseball is a testament to his well-rounded and unique offensive game. And you know who has an 88-mph average exit velocity? AL MVP candidate José Ramírez.
If you compare Rutschman’s full-season numbers to those of the game’s elite catchers, there’s no doubt he belongs in the conversation regarding the league’s best backstop.
Get more from Baltimore Orioles Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more.
