Why the San Francisco Giants went from juggernaut to just OK

By Pedro Moura
FOX Sports MLB Writer

A year ago this month, the San Francisco Giants were soaring past 100 wins on their way to edging the Los Angeles Dodgers in a division race for the ages. 

This September, the Giants are out of playoff contention and instead sorting out what they have for the future. As he spoke to reporters during a series against the rival Dodgers this week in Los Angeles, manager Gabe Kapler repeatedly referenced the future as he explained his lineup, positional and pitching decisions.

“Sometimes,” Kapler said, “it’s just about exposure and experience.”

His team’s decline has been as or more precipitous than its surprise rise to success in 2021. What worked then has not worked this year. Good fortune with health gave way to far lesser luck.

Let us examine three key reasons the Giants are experiencing inferior results this season and what those reasons indicate about their chances to contend again soon in one of the sport’s most competitive divisions.

1. The aging veterans actually aged.

It was, as much as anything, the story of their miraculous 2021: All San Francisco’s 30-somethings whom the sport had given up on were great again. And it is, as much as anything, the story of their disappointing 2022 that they are not.

Third baseman Evan Longoria, 36, has matched his offensive output but only in about a half-season due to injury. After logging the best year of his career at 34, shortstop Brandon Crawford is putting up one of the worst seasons of his career at 35. He might have one more chance to surprise in 2023, as his 2021 campaign earned him a two-year extension. The Giants are committed to him for another season. Plus, it’s not like he hasn’t bounced back in his 30s before.

Maybe more concerning has been Brandon Belt‘s downfall. The longtime first baseman recently underwent season-ending surgery and will become a free agent after the World Series. He played out his 12th season in San Francisco on an $18.4 million qualifying offer but will have to accept far less to return next season. He’ll be 35 in April, and he has come to the plate 500 or more times in a season only once since 2016.

And Buster Posey, of course, retired. The Giants attempted to replace him with former first-round pick Joey Bart, but Bart has been only passable, not near Posey’s longtime standard.

2. Most of their marginal gains disappeared.

This is best exemplified by 2021’s breakout platoon stars failing to replicate their success in 2022

LaMonte Wade Jr., a 27-year-old who somehow delivered in nearly every significant spot he entered a year ago, has regressed to being a fairly middling hitter. After an unspectacular first half, fellow breakout star Darin Ruf went to the Mets at the trade deadline — albeit for a significant return. At this point, outfielders Steven Duggar and Alex Dickerson, useful 2021 contributors both, are long gone.

The Giants have had success with journeyman Joc Pederson in a platoon role, but it’ll cost them more money to bring him back for 2023 after he signed for $6 million in 2022.

The other big source for gains on the margins in 2021 was the bullpen, and the Giants’ relievers have regressed from the top third to the bottom third of the league in 2022. They brought back each of their six top relievers from a year ago, but all six of them have been significantly worse this year.

In one encouraging sign for the future, September 2021 sensation Camilo Doval kept his momentum this year. There just isn’t enough assembled around him yet, and 2022 breakout reliever John Brebbia is already 32 and a year from free agency.

There have been a few more encouraging signs from the rest of the roster: Logan Webb, 25, has stayed healthy and pitched well, if not to the ace level he hinted at in October. Second baseman Thairo Estrada, 26, has looked like an every-day player in his first full season. Which brings us to the last reason …

3. There wasn’t enough youth on the roster at the season’s start.

Especially with the new 28-man September roster restrictions, high-priced teams tend to have trouble handing over playing time to younger and unproven players at this time of year. To the Giants’ credit, Kapler and general manager Farhan Zaidi have pivoted faster than most into a nightly tryout for the future.

J.D. Davis, acquired for Ruf, is playing every day for the first time in his career. Lewis Brinson, a one-time top prospect turned sizable bust found on the scrap heap, is getting another chance to figure it out. It’s going well so far. In-house prospect David Villar earned an opportunity after a standout season in Triple-A, and the Giants are giving it to him.

Davis is 29, Brinson is 28, and Villar is 25. It’s not exactly a youth movement. But their arrivals underscore just how old this roster was in April — and how much work Zaidi must do to get the Giants back in postseason contention by this time next year.

Pedro Moura is the national baseball writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the Dodgers for The Athletic, the Angels and Dodgers for the Orange County Register and L.A. Times, and his alma mater, USC, for ESPN Los Angeles. He is the author of “How to Beat a Broken Game.” Follow him on Twitter @pedromoura.