Wisconsin Badgers predictions: Game 5 at Iowa

Wisconsin’s season hasn’t gone as many thought, for a variety of reasons.

Perhaps the Badgers can salvage something with a win at rival Iowa. Wisconsin has won four straight in the series, but are coming off back-to-back losses while the Hawkeyes have won five straight.

Of course, neither team has beaten an opponent which has a winning record (and the Badgers, at 2-2, wouldn’t qualify for Iowa).

With snow in the forecast, we can probably expect a knockdown, drag-out, slobberknocker.

Iowa was favored by Vegas when the week began and the tide has since turned with Wisconsin now favored.

In virtually a “pick’em” game, who do the experts like?

Here’s this week’s predictions from around the web:

The Associated Press’ Ralph D. Russo: Wisconsin 21, Iowa 18.

Pete Fiutak of Collegefootballnews.com: Iowa 19, Wisconsin 13. “It’s going to be a low-scoring battle with neither team able to establish anything throughout the game. However, Wisconsin is stalling way too much. It’s a simple problem. Defenses are loading up against a running game that’s missing a Jonathan Taylor-type of back, Graham Mertz doesn’t have the top targets to throw to and hesitates a bit too much, and the whole thing has come to a stop. The offense will get creative, but it won’t work well enough. Iowa will have to live off of several Keith Duncan field goals, but it’ll come up with a strong, tough home win.”

Bill Bender of The Sporting News: Wisconsin 21, Iowa 20. “Wisconsin’s season has been derailed by COVID-19 pauses, and the offense sputtered in losses to Northwestern and Indiana. The Badgers have won four in a row in this series, however, and they pull out another one here in a nail-biter.”

Josh Slagter of MLive.com: Wisconsin 24, Iowa 20. “Wisconsin has won seven of eight in this series, but enters this matchup limping along, with an offense that’s managed just 13 total points in two losses. Iowa’s won five in a row, and QB Spencer Petras finally pitched in with a multi-TD game. But the Hawkeyes still are extremely run heavy, and the Badgers have one of the Big Ten’s best defenses. Coin flip game. If WR Danny Davis can return, that should be enough to get Graham Mertz back to how he looked in the first two games.”

Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter: Iowa 24, Wisconsin 21. “The Badgers have managed just 13 points in the last two weeks, with Indiana keeping them out of the end zone Saturday. The Wisconsin defense will keep things close, and this could devolve into a ground-and-pound Big Ten game. Advantage to homestanding Iowa.”

Chad Leistikow of the Des Moines Register: Wisconsin 24, Iowa 19. “Iowa opened as a 3-point favorite but expected snowy conditions have bettors flocking to the Badgers. The current program trajectories lean Iowa, the analytics still lean toward Wisconsin. The Badgers’ coaching staff always seem to be ready for whatever the Hawkeyes throw their way.”

Joe Vozzelli Jr. of the Champaign News-Gazette: Iowa 28, Wisconsin 21. “Spencer Petras had his best game last week at Illinois (18 of 28, 200 yards and three touchdowns). The sophomore from California hasn’t had to be great because of the Hawkeyes’ stout running game and a defense that hasn’t allowed more than 25 points in 21 consecutive games.”

Sam McKewon of the Omaha World-Leader: Iowa 23, Wisconsin 20. “The Badgers’ offense has run aground in losses to Northwestern and Indiana. The Hawkeyes have as good a defense as either, and perhaps a better offense.”

Rob Howe of HawkeyeNation.com: Iowa 17, Wisconsin 13. “Underestimating the Badgers would be a mistake but that doesn’t seem likely in this case. It’s hard to imagine a team on Iowa’s schedule it wants to beat any more than its rival to the north. With what we have to go on in this crazy season, the Hawkeyes look like the better group here. They have a more balanced offense and better special teams. That makes them the pick.”

Jeff Johnson of The (Cedar Rapids) Gazette: Iowa 23, Wisconsin 17. “(Wisconsin’s) offense has been woefully inconsistent and just plain bad the last two games. Iowa has gotten consistently better all around in this difficult season and is on a five-game win streak. Both teams have terrific defenses, so this could be a low-scoring game. I’ll go with a few points being scored but not a ton.”

Mike Bainbridge of Athlon Sports: Iowa 20, Wisconsin 17. “With less-than-ideal conditions and two of the best defenses in the Big Ten on tap, it’s safe to assume this game won’t be a shootout. The Hawkeyes win a close one at home as they’re playing just a bit better on both sides of the ball right now.”

The Oklahoman’s Berry Tramel: Iowa 27, Wisconsin 17.

Bruce Feldman of The Athletic ($): Iowa 13, Wisconsin 7 (tabbed as his “upset special”). “The Hawkeyes D has been consistently strong every week, not allowing more than 5.37 yards per play in any of their seven previous outings. But the Badgers D has been even more stout, albeit in three less games. That said, right now I have a bit more confidence in Iowa’s offense than I do the Badgers’.”

Stewart Mandel of The Athletic ($): Iowa 31, Wisconsin 26. “Wisconsin has gone from averaging 47.0 points in its first two games to 6.5 in its second two. Iowa has gone in the opposite direction. After scoring 20 points in both of its season-opening losses, Spencer Petras and the Hawkeyes have won four in a row while averaging 37.2 points. … Why are the Badgers favored?”

Andy Greder of the Pioneer Press: Iowa 17, Wisconsin 14.

Erik Buchinger of Saturday Tradition: Iowa 17, Wisconsin 14. “My prediction hinges on the health of Wisconsin’s wide receivers. While Mertz has certainly struggled the last two games throwing the ball, the pass catchers haven’t given him a whole lot to work with. Indiana showed the blueprint last week of simply not letting tight end Jake Ferguson beat it, and that’s likely going to be the strategy for this Iowa defense.”

Joe DiTullio of GameHaus: Iowa

Mark Hasty of Go Iowa Awesome: Iowa 31, Wisconsin 17. “This is no season for me to be overconfident in my picks, and I know Iowa’s offense isn’t quite as good as those final scores indicate. But I can’t think of a phase of this game where Iowa isn’t at worst competitive with Wisconsin and I can think of a few in which it’s clearly superior. So for the last game of this goofball regular season I’ll unflinchingly predict an Iowa victory.”

Bill Connelly of ESPN: His S&P+ projection has it Wisconsin 24, Iowa 21.

SportsLine Projection Model: Iowa 20, Wisconsin 17.

All three Athlon Sports analysts are picking Wisconsin to lose.

Five of six analysts at USAToday.com pick Wisconsin to lose with Jace Evans the only who thinks the Badgers will emerge with a victory.

Five of six CBSSports.com analysts think Wisconsin will lose (Jerry Palm does not have a pick listed) and only one (of seven) thinks the Badgers will cover a 1 1/2-point spread.

Three of four analysts at SI.com think Wisconsin will win with Pat Forde the lone dissenter.